Large earthquake rupture and triggering mechanisms that drive seismicity in subduction zones are investigated in this thesis using a combination of earthquake observations, statistical and physical modeling.A comparison of the rupture characteristics of 7.5 M ≥ earthquakes with fore-arc geological structure suggests that long-lived frictional heterogeneities (asperities) are primary controls on the rupture extent of large earthquakes. To determine when and where stress is accumulating on the megathrust that could cause one of these asperities to rupture, this thesis develops a new method to invert earthquake catalogs to detect space-time variations in stressing rate. This algorithm is based on observations that strain transients due to aseismic processes such as fluid flow, slow slip, and afterslip trigger seismicity, often in the form of earthquake swarms. These swarms are modeled with two common approaches for investigating time-dependent driving mechanisms in earthquake catalogs: the stochastic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model and the physically-based ratestate friction model . These approaches are combined into a single model that accounts for both aftershock activity and variations in background seismicity rate due to aseismic processes, which is then implemented in a data assimilation algorithm to invert catalogs for space-time variations in stressing rate. The technique is evaluated with a synthetic test and applied to catalogs from the Salton Trough in southern California and the Hokkaido corner in northeastern Japan. The results demonstrate that the algorithm can successfully identify aseismic transients in a multi-decade earthquake catalog, and may also ultimately be useful for mapping spatial variations in frictional conditions on the plate interface.
AcknowledgmentsThis thesis would not have been possible without the help and support of many, many people over the past six years, only a few of whom can be listed here. First and foremost, my deepest thanks go to my advisor Jeff McGuire, for all his time, support, confidence, patience, tolerance and nudging when I needed it. I have learned a tremendous amount from him and look forward to continuing to do so throughout the rest of my scientific career. I am also grateful for the help and insights provided by my thesis committee: Jian Lin, Rob Reves-Sohn, and Brad Hager, and thank Greg Hirth for chairing my defense. I would also like to thank current and former members of G&G and the EAPS Geophysics group, especially Laurent Montési, Mark Behn, Dan Lizarralde, Stéphane Rondenay and Brian Evans. I learned a lot from my various interactions with them in seminars, classes, projects, casual chats, and field trips. I'm also grateful for my fellow JP G&G and EAPS students, and in particular my group-mate, Emily Roland.I have benefited a great deal from working with Yosihiko Ogata and Jiancang Zhuang at the Institute of Statistical Mathematics in Tokyo, Japan, who taught me a lot about the ETAS model and were gracious hosts during my two visits ...