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For more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment-visit http://www.usgs.gov/ or call 1-888-ASK-USGS (1-888-275-8747).For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod/.Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner.Suggested citation: Petersen, M.D., Mueller, C.S., Moschetti, M.P., Hoover, S.M., Llenos, A.L., Ellsworth, W.L., Michael, A.J., Rubinstein, J.L., McGarr, A.F., and Rukstales, K.S., 2016, 2016 One-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes (ver. 1.1, June 2016): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2016-1035, 52 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20161035. ISSN 2331ISSN -1258 Cover: Map showing chance of damage from an earthquake in the Central and Eastern United States during 2016. Percent chances are represented as follows: pale yellow, less than 1 percent; dark yellow, 1 to 2 percent; orange, 2 to 5 percent; red, 5 to 10 percent; dark red, 10 to 12 percent.iii AcknowledgmentsWe wish to thank the November 2014 Induced Seismicity workshop participants, over 100 individuals who made valuable suggestions for revising the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Modeling Project maps and models to incorporate induced seismicity. We thank State geological survey representatives and experts on induced seismicity from Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Texas for their guidance in delineating and discussing potential induced seismicity zones. AbstractThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a 1-year seismic hazard forecast for 2016 for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and diversity of opinion in the science community. Ground shaking seismic hazard for 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year reaches 0.6 g (as a fraction of standard gravity [g]) in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g in the Raton Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in...

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Wills, who reviewed the documentation, data, methods, and models, and provided excellent feedback that helped us to improve the quality of this product. We thank the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) for funding the development of the maps. We also thank Teri Losano, Jill McCarthy, and Janet Slate for editing the manuscript.

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