Sources of intense geomagnetic storms over the rise of solar cycle 23

Cid, C.; Hidalgo, M. A.; Sáiz, E.; Cerrato, Y.; Sequeiros, J.

doi:10.1007/s11207-004-1243-3

Cited by 13 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…However, forecasting geomagnetic activity from solar observations has become a difficult task nowadays, and the main efforts in this field have been dedicated to the interplanetary causes such as magnetic clouds, shocks, co-rotating interaction regions, etc. (Cid et al, 2004;Echer et al, 2005;Huttunen et al, 2002;Gonzalez et al, 2007;Gosling et al, Correspondence to: E. Saiz (elena.saiz@uah.es) 1991; Richardson et al, 2002Richardson et al, , 2006Zhang et al, 2006). On the other hand, the time (less than 2 h) for forewarning of events using L1 measurements is not enough to identify these interplanetary events before the onset of a geomagnetic storm.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting intense geomagnetic activity using interplanetary magnetic field data

2008

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Abstract. Southward interplanetary magnetic fields are considered traces of geoeffectiveness since they are a main agent of magnetic reconnection of solar wind and magnetosphere. The first part of this work revises the ability to forecast intense geomagnetic activity using different procedures available in the literature. The study shows that current methods do not succeed in making confident predictions. This fact led us to develop a new forecasting procedure, which provides trustworthy results in predicting large variations of D st index over a sample of 10 years of observations and is based on the value B z only. The proposed forecasting method appears as a worthy tool for space weather purposes because it is not affected by the lack of solar wind plasma data, which usually occurs during severe geomagnetic activity. Moreover, the results obtained guide us to provide a new interpretation of the physical mechanisms involved in the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere using Faraday's law.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting intense geomagnetic activity using interplanetary magnetic field data

2008

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“…Events seen by the instruments on the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and/or Wind can more often be identified unambiguously with LASCO CMEs, but in these cases because we are dealing with Earth-directed CMEs the speed measurements from LASCO are often affected by projection effects which are difficult to determine for any individual event (Cid et al, 2004;Dal Lago et al, 2004;Howard and Tappin, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Deceleration of an Interplanetary Transient from the Sun to 5 Au

Tappin

2006

Sol Phys

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A CME which was first seen in LASCO is tracked through SMEI and on out to Ulysses. These measurements allow us to determine the deceleration and compare different models of the deceleration process. It is found that both a simple "snow plough" model and an aerodynamic drag model predict a much more rapid deceleration in the lower solar wind than is observed. Therefore some driving force is needed over an extended range of distances to account for the motion of the transient. It is conjectured that at least part of this driving force may be provided by one of two low-latitude coronal holes which were close to the site of the CME.

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“…However, not all frontside halo CMEs will encounter the Earth. Only about half of all frontside halo CMEs have interplanetary counterparts detected near the Earth (e.g., Cane et al 2000;Wang et al 2002;Cid et al 2004;Yermolaev et al 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Major Coronal Mass Ejections on Geospace during 2005 September 7–13

Wang¹,

Xue²,

Shen³

et al. 2006

ApJ

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We have analyzed five major CMEs originating from NOAA active region (AR) 808 during the period of 2005 September 7-13, when the AR 808 rotated from the east limb to near solar meridian. Several factors that affect the probability of the CMEs' encounter with the Earth are demonstrated. The solar and interplanetary observations suggest that the second and third CMEs, originating from E67 and E47 , respectively, encountered the Earth, while the first CME originating from E77 missed the Earth, and the last two CMEs, although originating from E39 and E10 , respectively, probably only grazed the Earth. On the basis of our ice cream cone mode and CME deflection model, we find that the CME span angle and deflection are important for the probability of encountering Earth. The large span angles allowed the middle two CMEs to hit the Earth, even though their source locations were not close to the solar central meridian. The significant deflection made the first CME totally miss the Earth even though it also had wide span angle. The deflection may also have made the last CME nearly miss the Earth even though it originated close to the disk center. We suggest that, in order to effectively predict whether a CME will encounter the Earth, the factors of the CME source location, the span angle, and the interplanetary deflection should all be taken into account. Subject headingg s: solar-terrestrial relations -Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

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Sources of intense geomagnetic storms over the rise of solar cycle 23

Cited by 13 publications

References 27 publications

Forecasting intense geomagnetic activity using interplanetary magnetic field data

Forecasting intense geomagnetic activity using interplanetary magnetic field data

The Deceleration of an Interplanetary Transient from the Sun to 5 Au

Impact of Major Coronal Mass Ejections on Geospace during 2005 September 7–13

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