Southern Political Exceptionalism? Presidential Voting in the South and Non-South*

Abstract

Objective. This study develops and tests a model of political regionalism that posits that if regions are politically exceptional, then individuals sharing the same profile but living in these different regions will have divergent presidential voting patterns (King, 1996). Methods. Analyzing presidential voting behavior from 1952 to 2004, I use logistic regression techniques to test a regional model of homogeneity (southern exceptionalism) versus a unit model of homogeneity (South and Non-South are statistically similar). Results. The findings show that the South's presidential voting patterns are exceptional in the 1950s and during the civil rights era but, starting in the Reagan era, southern exceptionalism waned. These findings also show that the South is converging with the non-South (northernization) relative to the influences of race, family income, union membership, in-migrants, and gender, and the nonSouth is converging with the South (southernization) relative to the influences of education, blue-collar workers, and age. Conclusions. Both economic class and race variables contribute to the demise of regional exceptionalism; however, race plays a more persistent role. Given the process of ''southernization'' and the instability of the predictors of presidential voting for the South over time, I conclude that the study of the South as a region should continue until the process of change subsides and a new equilibrium is found.

Racism, Resentment, and Regionalism: The South and the Nation in the 2008 Presidential Election

“…Some scholars find distinctive patterns of office holding and voting when comparing the South to other regions (Bullock et al 2006;Black and Black 2002) while others find that the South's regional patterns of voting are no longer exceptional in congressional (Shafer and Johnston 2006, 189-99) and presidential elections (Aistrup 2010a). The results of the 2008 presidential election underscore this controversy.…”

“…8 Racism and Regionalism: The findings also speak to the controversy regarding the distinctiveness of the South, especially as it applies to racism. The most striking finding is that the influence of racially biased stereotypes is still concentrated in the South and not anywhere else, debunking, at least in this one instance, the recent literature suggesting that the old South had "gone with the wind" (Aistrup 2010a;Shafer and Johnston 2006). At this stage, the effects of racism appear to be an isolated incident associated with the election of Obama.…”

“…To assess the differential effects of stereotypes and racial resentment in the South and non-South I use conditional coding (Wright 1976;Aistrup 2010a). The coding of these four conditional variables is straightforward.…”

Explaining State Differences in the Implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act: A South/Non‐South Comparison*

“…Aistrup () found that southern exceptionalism, as measured by differences in the predictors of presidential voting patterns, has declined since the 1950s. Aistrup concludes that the South is becoming more like the non‐South on indicators of gender, race, income, union membership, and in‐migrants, but that the non‐South is becoming more like the South on indicators such as age, education, and social class.…”

“…Aistrup concludes that the South is becoming more like the non‐South on indicators of gender, race, income, union membership, and in‐migrants, but that the non‐South is becoming more like the South on indicators such as age, education, and social class. Although Key () concluded that presidential voting patterns in the South were distinct because of racial segregation, Aistrup (:923–24) finds that race is an important factor in the loss of regional exceptionalism, as is economic class. He concludes that scholars should focus on developing more nuanced explanations of the role of race.…”