Southward displacement of the upper atmosphere zonal jet in the eastern north Pacific due to global warming

Park, Jae Heung; An, Soon Il

doi:10.1002/2014gl062175

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…We posit that the shifts in frontal rain event frequency and latitude over the 57-y record reflect changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, in particular, the annual cycle of the East Asian jet stream (32,33). On paleoclimate time scales, synchronized changes in dust records and speleothems have been attributed to modulation in the East Asian jet's summer advance (34).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007

Day

Fung

Liu

2018

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The topography and continental configuration of East Asia favor the year-round existence of storm tracks that extend thousands of kilometers from China into the northwestern Pacific Ocean, producing zonally elongated patterns of rainfall that we call "frontal rain events." In spring and early summer (known as "Meiyu Season"), frontal rainfall intensifies and shifts northward during a series of stages collectively known as the East Asian summer monsoon. Using a technique called the Frontal Rain Event Detection Algorithm, we create a daily catalog of all frontal rain events in east China during 1951-2007, quantify their attributes, and classify all rainfall on each day as either frontal, resulting from large-scale convergence, or nonfrontal, produced by local buoyancy, topography, or typhoons. Our climatology shows that the East Asian summer monsoon consists of a series of coupled changes in frontal rain event frequency, latitude, and daily accumulation. Furthermore, decadal changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall in east China are overwhelmingly due to changes in frontal rainfall. We attribute the "South Flood-North Drought" pattern observed beginning in the 1980s to changes in the frequency of frontal rain events, while the years 1994-2007 witnessed an uptick in event daily accumulation relative to the rest of the study years. This particular signature may reflect the relative impacts of global warming, aerosol loading, and natural variability on regional rainfall, potentially via shifting the East Asian jet stream.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007

Day

Fung

Liu

2018

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…10). Based on the Hadley circulation dynamics (Kang and Lu 2012;Park and An 2014), the equatorward movement of ITCZ brings the equatorward displacement of the subtropical jet. Thus, the equatorward displacement of ITCZ may play a role in promoting the equatorward movement of PNA-like wave train in the Atlantic since the wave train is affected by the subtropical jet.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal modulation of El Niño–tropical North Atlantic teleconnection by the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation

Park

2018

Clim Dyn

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It has been well documented that El Niño (La Niña) is able to induce sea surface temperature (SST) warming (cooling) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) in the following spring. Based on the observational analysis, in this study we found that such a lagged El Niño-TNA SST relationship is non-stationary and depends on the phase of Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO). During the AMO negative phase, the influence of El Niño on TNA-SST becomes intensified and lasts longer till the following summer to fall, and vice versa. We demonstrated that such a modulation is through atmospheric teleconnection change because El Niño during the AMO negative phase tends to have a stronger and eastward-shifting SST warming over the eastern Pacific and the SST warming persists longer throughout late spring. It is further shown that both extratropical and tropical teleconnections are important in causing the non-stationary El Niño effect according to the AMO phase. The extratropical teleconnection is through the Pacific-North America pattern, while the tropical teleconnection is via anomalous Walker circulation. The extratropical teleconnection acts primarily during winter to early spring, while the tropical teleconnection appears more important in spring. If AMO remains in its positive phase in the near future, a weak influence of El Niño on TNA-SST is expected to ensue.

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“…We use the terminology "extension" and "shift" to give names to the uncertainty patterns, though the changes occurring to the midlatitude jet and resulting P in the midlatitude Pacific are asymmetric and complex. One robust feature found in the CMIP5 archive is a poleward jet shift in the western Pacific but equatorward shift in the east (Simpson et al 2014;Park and An 2014). Simpson et al (2014) attribute this equatorward shift in the eastern Pacific to a barotropic stationary wave anomaly off the west coast of North America.…”

Section: B Regional Pups Using Eof Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of Precipitation Change and Climatological Uncertainty among CMIP5 Models, with a Focus on the Midlatitude Pacific Storm Track*

et al. 2015

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Projections of modeled precipitation (P) change in global warming scenarios demonstrate marked intermodel disagreement at regional scales. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and maximum covariance analysis (MCA) are used to diagnose spatial patterns of disagreement in the simulated climatology and end-of-century P changes in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive. The term principal uncertainty pattern (PUP) is used for any robust mode calculated when applying these techniques to a multimodel ensemble. For selected domains in the tropics, leading PUPs highlight features at the margins of convection zones and in the Pacific cold tongue. The midlatitude Pacific storm track is emphasized given its relevance to wintertime P projections over western North America. The first storm-track PUP identifies a sensitive region of disagreement in P increases over the eastern midlatitude Pacific where the storm track terminates, related to uncertainty in an eastward extension of the climatological jet. The second PUP portrays uncertainty in a zonally asymmetric meridional shift of storm-track P, related to uncertainty in the extent of a poleward jet shift in the western Pacific. Both modes appear to arise primarily from intermodel differences in the response to radiative forcing, distinct from sampling of internal variability. The leading storm-track PUPs for P and zonal wind change exhibit similarities to the leading uncertainty patterns for the historical climatology, indicating important and parallel sensitivities in the eastern Pacific storm-track terminus region. However, expansion coefficients for climatological uncertainties tend to be weakly correlated with those for end-of-century change.

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Southward displacement of the upper atmosphere zonal jet in the eastern north Pacific due to global warming

Cited by 5 publications

References 38 publications

Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007

Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007

Interdecadal modulation of El Niño–tropical North Atlantic teleconnection by the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation

Patterns of Precipitation Change and Climatological Uncertainty among CMIP5 Models, with a Focus on the Midlatitude Pacific Storm Track*

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