Space-Time Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease from 2005 to 2014 among Cattle Populations in Benin: A Retrospective Study

Abstract

Many cases of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are reported every year in Benin. In order to elucidate the epidemiology of this disease, a space-time analysis was carried out in all the 77 municipalities of the country aiming to identify high risk areas as well as risk factors such as season and transhumance on the period of 2005 to 2014. Data were collected retrospectively from the Directory of Animal Production of Benin. The method of Kulldorff was used with the software SaTScan™ for the spacetime analysis while a script was designed in the software R to generate new sizes with three different models of transhumance. From 2005 to 2014, 434 foci were recorded. Many outbreaks occurred in August, September and October. This period corresponds to the small rainy season in the South and the rainy season of the North. The municipality of Parakou was regarded as the source FMD outbreaks in Benin because it hosts one of the largest livestock markets in the country and many rivers. It was the municipality at the highest risk. The other municipalities at risk were Nikki, Pèrèrè and Kalaléas well as Karimama (hosting the national parkW), Kouandé and Toucountouna located nearby Pendjari's national park. This study revealed that the spacetime configuration is real and the main factors of persistence and dissemination of FMD virus were national parks, classified forests and the livestock market of Parakou all located in the North. The variation of the number of cattle due to their transhumance from the North to the South did not influence the zones at risk. Therefore, Northern Benin is probably at high risk of FMD.

A scoping review of foot‐and‐mouth disease risk, based on spatial and spatio‐temporal analysis of outbreaks in endemic settings

“…Other analysis reported multiple outbreak peaks across time series. These peaks encompassed combinations between the local dry and rainy seasons for different years, serotypes or locations (Abdrakhmanov et al., 2018 ; Gallego et al., 2007 ; Guerrini et al., 2019 ; Madin, 2011 ; Noudeke et al., 2017 ; Souley Kouato et al., 2018 ). In contrast, two studies reported the absence of a seasonal pattern (Jemberu et al., 2016 ; Perez et al., 2011 ).…”