Spatial and temporal analysis of dry spells in Croatia

Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić; Pasarić, Zoran; Gajić‐Čapka, Marjana

doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0250-6

Cited by 64 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…With regards to seasonal precipitation, a significant trend cannot be identified for all the season; however, a significant negative trend has been detected in summer (Figure 6d) with a maximum reduction of more than −2 days/10 years. These results disagree with other studies in the Mediterranean region, which evidenced an increase in the mean and largest dry periods [57,59]. However, the temporal behavior of the dry spells confirms other studies on rainfall in Calabria [23,27], which evidenced a decreasing trend for autumn-winter rainfall and an increasing trend in summer.…”

Section: Temporal Variability Of the Dry Spell Lengthscontrasting

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Dry Spells in Southern Italy (Calabria)

Caloiero

Coscarelli

Ferrari

et al. 2015

Water

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A deficit in precipitation may impact greatly on soil moisture, snowpack, stream flow, groundwater, and reservoir storage. Among the several approaches available to analyze this phenomenon, one of the most applied is the analysis of dry spells. In this paper, an investigation of the spatial and temporal patterns of dry spells, in a region of southern Italy, has been carried out on a daily precipitation dataset. First, the frequency distributions of the sequences of dry days have been analyzed. Then, the regional areas most affected by dry events have been evaluated at annual and seasonal scale. Finally, the long-term trend of the dry spells has been estimated at annual and seasonal scale. Results show that the lower probabilities of long dry spells occur in the main reliefs of the region, while the highest values have been detected in the Ionian side. The spatial distribution of the mean and maximum length values of the dry spells evidenced a west-east gradient. The trend analysis mainly revealed a negative behavior in the duration of the dry spells at annual scale and a positive trend in the winter period.

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Section: Temporal Variability Of the Dry Spell Lengthscontrasting

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Dry Spells in Southern Italy (Calabria)

Caloiero

Coscarelli

Ferrari

et al. 2015

Water

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“…In the last decades, numerous analyses related to dry spell lengths, DSL, have been applied in different regions, as the Iberian Peninsula (Martín-Vide and Gómez 1999 ;Vicente-Serrano 2003;Serra et al 2006 ;Lana et al 2006a, b , 2008a, b , Sánchez et al 2011, Greece (Anagnostopoulou et al 2003 ;Nastos and Zerefos 2009 ), Croatia (Cindrić et al 2010 ), Eastern Mediterranean (Kutiel 1985 ;Kostopoulou and Jones 2005 ), Italy (Brunetti et al 2002 ), Switzerland (Schmidli and Frei 2005 ), France (Galloy et al 1982 ;Douguédroit 1987 ), Belgium (Berger and Goossens 1983 ), Norway (Perzyna e.Proofing http://eproofing.springer.com/journals/printpage.php?token=XH5Or7J6x... 1994 ), Brazil (Carvalho et al 2013 ), Iran (Sarhadi and Heydarizadeh 2014 ), Argentina (Llano and Penalba 2011 ), USA (Groisman and Knight 2008 ), China (Gong et al 2005 ;She et al 2013 ), Europe (Heinrich and Gobiet 2011 ;Serra et al 2013Serra et al , 2014Zolina et al 2013 ) and West Africa (Sivakumar 1992 ), among others.…”

Section: Aq4mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thresholds commonly used are 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day (Kutiel and Maheras 1992 ;Martín-Vide and Gómez 1999 ;Anagnostopoulou et al 2003 ;Serra et al 2006Serra et al , 2013Serra et al , 2014Lana et al 2008a , b ;Cindrić et al 2010 ). Whereas 0.1 mm/day is the usual lowest daily rain amount for a pluviometer, 1.0 and 5.0 mm/day are related to evapotranspiration and run-off processes, respectively, and, finally, 10.0 mm/day is related to saturation of thin surface layers (Lana et al 2012 ).…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

Partial duration series distributions of the European dry spell lengths for the second half of the twentieth century

Serra

Lana

Burgueño³

et al. 2014

Theor Appl Climatol

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A spatial analysis of partial duration series, PDS, of the dry spell lengths, DSL, is applied to 267 European stations during years 1951–2000. A DSL is defined as the number of consecutive days with precipitation below 0.1 mm/day. For every station, PDS are made of DSL longer than those corresponding to 95th empirical percentile. The L-skewness and L-kurtosis diagram of the PDS distributions shows that most of the stations fit well a generalised Pareto, GP, model. Only four rain gauge records at the southeast Mediterranean coast notably depart from this model. In addition, DSL maps for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25 and 50 years are introduced by taking into account GP parameters, which are estimated by fitting the GP distribution to empirical PDS distributions of DSL. A comparative study with those obtained in a previous paper, for the whole DSL series and the corresponding best distribution model (Pearson type III), shows that the differences of DSL for the different return periods keep within ±10 % in most of rain gauges. Moreover, a principal component analysis, PCA, is applied to the four first L-moments of the 267 rain gauges. Then, a regionalization in 11 groups is obtained after the clustering process. Finally, a regional frequency analysis is attempted, being possible to assign a GP parent distribution with different parameters to 7 out of the 11 groups.Postprint (author's final draft

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“…However, droughts not only result from the lack of total precipitation but are also affected by changes in annual precipitation pattern, such as a shift in dry spells, especially those extremely long dry spells caused by the increase in consecutive no-rain days during a period. Research based solely on monthly precipitation would sometimes lead to incorrect results (Cindric et al 2010). For example, a prolonged dry period followed by a heavy precipitation event might be regarded as wet at an average level (She et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The same precipitation total and number of dry days will have quite different effects when the dry days are homogenously distributed in time or concentrated in a few dry spells (Zolina et al 2013). Therefore, dry spells form a useful index being helpful for a better and more comprehensive understanding of droughts and has also been widely used all over the world (Cindric et al 2010;Deni and Jemain 2009;Deni et al 2010;Lana et al 2006;Lana et al 2008;Modarres 2010;Schmidli and Frei 2005;Vargas et al 2011). Several researches about dry spells have also been conducted over China (Gong et al 2005;Lei and Duan 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prolonged dry episodes over Northeast China during the period 1961–2012

Kong

Zheng

et al. 2014

Theor Appl Climatol

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Spatial and temporal changes of prolonged dry episodes, defined by the 90th percentile of consecutive norain days (<1 mm/day) in both the wet (May to September) and dry seasons (October to April), were investigated using daily precipitation data of 72 meteorological stations over Northeast China from 1961 to 2012. Increasing trends are detected for the prolonged dry episode duration at 94.4 % of the stations in the wet season, and 26.5 % of these increasing trends are statistically significant at the 5 % level. In the dry season, 77.8 % of the stations show decreasing trends, and 32.1 % of these decreasing trends are significant at the 5 % level. The drought trend in the wet season detected by the prolonged dry episode duration is more prominent than that detected by the total number of no-rain days or the Standard Precipitation Index. The ratio between the prolonged dry episode duration and total number of no-rain days exhibits a significant (at the 5 % level) increase of 8.3 %/52 years in the wet season and a significant decrease (at the 5 % level) of nearly 11 %/52 years. An overall dry (before 1980), wet (during the 1980s), and dry (after 1990) tendency in the wet season is detected at the regional average level. Inter-annual variations of the prolonged dry episode duration at individual stations show four patterns. The most predominant pattern is similar to the regional average condition but with larger amplitude and mainly occurring over the northern part of Northeast China. Our study provides a more in-depth case to monitor droughts caused by extremely long dry spells and supports studies over other regions.

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Spatial and temporal analysis of dry spells in Croatia

Cited by 64 publications

References 21 publications

Analysis of Dry Spells in Southern Italy (Calabria)

Analysis of Dry Spells in Southern Italy (Calabria)

Partial duration series distributions of the European dry spell lengths for the second half of the twentieth century

Prolonged dry episodes over Northeast China during the period 1961–2012

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