Spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation in Poland in the period 1951–2006

Abstract

ABSTRACT:The study investigated spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation trend magnitudes and their directions. Daily precipitation from 48 synoptic stations in Poland for the period 1951-2006 were used. Five indices of precipitation extremes were chosen: the highest 5-day precipitation total, precipitation total from events ≥90 th and 95 th percentiles as well as number of days with precipitation ≥90 th and 95 th percentiles of daily precipitation amount. Trends in extreme precipitation indicators were analysed over semi-annual periods as well as over the standard climatological seasons. Trends were calculated for each of the 30-year moving periods within 1951-2006 using a simple linear regression method. Their significance was tested with the Mann-Kendall method.Decreasing trends in extreme precipitation indices dominated in both the warm and cool halves of the year and in the seasons. The greatest change was recorded in the least extreme precipitation indices. Summer was the season with the greatest number of statistically significant trends, mostly decreasing ones. Upward trends, having the greatest spatial extend in autumn, dominated the initial 30-year periods of the study period whereas the decreasing trends were common in the 30-years from 1956. In summer and winter, decreasing trends reached the greatest degrees of stability in southern Poland. In spring and autumn, a stable fall of extreme precipitation indices was mainly recorded in the south-western part of the country. Stable increasing trends were recorded sporadically. However, in spring trends towards an increase were more frequent than in other seasons. The strongest decreasing trends were observed in summer and winter, mainly in the south, while in autumn they also occurred in the west.

Evolution des pluies extrêmes dans le bassin du Chéliff (Algérie) au cours des 40 dernières années 1971–2010

“…1 Il s'agit dans ce travail d'analyser la tendance des six indices de pluies journalières. Cette méthode a été déjà utilisée par plusieurs auteurs (Maheras et al, 2008;Sahani et al, 2012;Ozer et al, 2007;Lupikasza, 2008;Martinez et al, 2007). Le test de Mann-Kendall permet de déceler l'existence d'une tendance globale au sein d'une série de données temporelles et a déjà été utilisé pour la détection de tendance dans les séries pluviométriques et tester leur significativité (Vannitsem et al, 1991;Norrant et Douguédroit, 2004;Maheras et al, 2008;Chaouche et al, 2010;Tramblay et al, 2013;Driouch et al, 2010).…”

Recent Change—Atmosphere

“…Very few changes were detected at a number of stations in Poland during 1951-2006(Wibig 2008aŁupikasza 2010). Only the number of days with precipitation increased significantly.…”

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Hourly Precipitation Patterns in Hainan Island, South China

“…According to Equation (1), the minimum value of PCI1 is 8.3, which occurs when the same amount of precipitation falls in each month. Oliver [7] suggested that monthly rainfall heterogeneity could be divided into four categories according to the PCI1 values: uniform precipitation distribution (PCI1 < 10), moderate precipitation distribution (PCI1: 10-15), irregular precipitation distribution (PCI1: [15][16][17][18][19][20] and highly irregular precipitation distribution (PCI1 > 20). PCI2 has been used to study daily rainfall heterogeneity [8], based on the fact that the precipitation frequency can generally be described by a negative exponential distribution (Equation (2)).…”

“…It is, therefore, difficult to determine the real trend of a time series. To access the stability characteristics of trends evaluated in this study, we determined the stability of extreme temperature and precipitation trends using the statistical significance of the trends tested by the M-K method, following the approach of Lupikasza [17] and Hidalgo-Muñoz et al [18]. In this method, trend stability was defined as follows:…”