Spatial consistency in drivers of population dynamics of a declining migratory bird

Burgess, Malcolm D.; Coffey, Peter; Lander, Frank; Price, David; Reed, Mike; Robinson, Robert A.

doi:10.1111/1365-2656.13834

Cited by 17 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 62 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In contrast to several other studies (Millon et al, 2019;Nater et al, 2022;e.g. Weegman et al, 2017), including the previous IPM study on wheatears (Paquet et al, 2019), our results suggest limited contribution of immigration to annual variation in growth rates.…”

Section: Case Studycontrasting

confidence: 79%

“…Studies using LTREs to decompose variance in realized growth rates with IPMs have focused on contributions from variation in vital rates, even when environmental predictors have been included in models (e.g. Canonne et al, 2023;Nater et al, 2022). We show how realized LTREs can be used to also decompose variation into contributions from environmental factors, and to assess the overall contribution of environmental versus demographic stochasticity, two conceptual extensions of the approach of Koons et al (2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Partitioning variance in population growth for models with environmental and demographic stochasticity

Knape¹,

Paquet²,

Arlt³

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

1. How demographic factors lead to variation or change in growth rates can be investigated using life table response experiments (LTRE) based on structured population models. Traditionally, LTREs focused on decomposing the asymptotic growth rate, but more recently decompositions of annual ‘realized’ growth rates have gained in popularity.2. Realized LTREs have been used particularly to understand how variation in vital rates translate into variation in growth for populations under long-term study. For these, complete population models may be constructed by combining data in an integrated population model (IPM). IPMs are also used to investigate how temporal variation in environmental drivers affect vital rates. Such investigations have usually come down to estimating covariate coefficients for the effects of environmental variables on vital rates, but formal ways of assessing how they lead to variation in growth rates have been lacking.3. We extend realized LTREs in two ways. First, we further partition the contributions from vital rates into contributions from temporally varying factors that affect them. The decomposition allows us to compare the resultant effect on the growth rate of different environmental factors that may each act via multiple vital rates. Second, we show how realized growth rates can be decomposed into separate components from environmental and demographic stochasticity. The latter is typically omitted in LTRE analyses.4. We illustrate how to use the approach in an IPM for data from a 26 year study on northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe), a migratory passerine bird breeding in an agricultural landscape. For this population, consisting of around 50-120 breeding pairs per year, we partition variation in realized growth rates into environmental contributions from temperature, rainfall, population density, and unexplained random variation via multiple vital rates, and from demographic stochasticity.5. The case study suggest that variation in first year survival via the random component, and adult survival via temperature are two main factors behind environmental variation in growth rates. More than half of the variation in growth rates is suggested to come from demographic stochasticity, demonstrating the importance of this factor for populations of moderate size.

show abstract

Section: Case Studycontrasting

confidence: 79%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Partitioning variance in population growth for models with environmental and demographic stochasticity

Knape¹,

Paquet²,

Arlt³

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Transient LTREs have previously been used mainly to decompose variance in realized growth rates into contributions from vital rates and age-structure, even when environmental predictors have been included in models (e.g. Canonne et al, 2023;Nater et al, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Transient LTREs have previously been used mainly to decompose variance in realized growth rates into contributions from vital rates and age‐structure, even when environmental predictors have been included in models (e.g. Canonne et al, 2023; Nater et al, 2022). We show how transient LTREs can be used to also decompose the variation in vital rates into contributions from environmental factors and density dependence, and to assess the overall contribution of environmental versus demographic stochasticity, two conceptual extensions of the approach of Koons et al (2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Partitioning variance in population growth for models with environmental and demographic stochasticity

Knape

Paquet

Arlt

et al. 2023

Journal of Animal Ecology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

How demographic factors lead to variation or change in growth rates can be investigated using life table response experiments (LTRE) based on structured population models. Traditionally, LTREs focused on decomposing the asymptotic growth rate, but more recently decompositions of annual ‘realized’ growth rates using ‘transient’ LTREs have gained in popularity. Transient LTREs have been used particularly to understand how variation in vital rates translate into variation in growth for populations under long‐term study. For these, complete population models may be constructed to investigate how temporal variation in environmental drivers affect vital rates. Such investigations have usually come down to estimating covariate coefficients for the effects of environmental variables on vital rates, but formal ways of assessing how they lead to variation in growth rates have been lacking. We extend transient LTREs to further partition the contributions from vital rates into contributions from temporally varying factors that affect them. The decomposition allows one to compare the resultant effect on the growth rate of different environmental factors, as well as density dependence, which may each act via multiple vital rates. We also show how realized growth rates can be decomposed into separate components from environmental and demographic stochasticity. The latter is typically omitted in LTRE analyses. We illustrate these extensions with an integrated population model (IPM) for data from a 26 years study on northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe), a migratory passerine bird breeding in an agricultural landscape. For this population, consisting of around 50–120 breeding pairs per year, we partition variation in realized growth rates into environmental contributions from temperature, rainfall, population density and unexplained random variation via multiple vital rates, and from demographic stochasticity. The case study suggests that variation in first year survival via the unexplained random component, and adult survival via temperature are two main factors behind environmental variation in growth rates. More than half of the variation in growth rates is suggested to come from demographic stochasticity, demonstrating the importance of this factor for populations of moderate size.

show abstract

“…Goodenough et al ., 2009; Schlin & Kllander, 2011; Smallegange et al ., 2011). However, some populations in old-growth forests have also declined (Nater et al ., 2022; Wesolowski et al ., 2022). Climate change inducing a temporal mismatch between the birds' arrival at the breeding sites and the peak of insect availability, more heavy rain events in summer, increased competition with resident birds and increased mortality during migration or in the overwintering sites have been discussed as possible reasons for the decline (Both et al ., 2006; Wittwer et al ., 2015; Samplonius et al ., 2018; Nater et al ., 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Decoupling of a Local Population Trend of the European Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca from Nest Box Abundance Indicates the Importance of Old-Growth Forest

Abrahamczyk

Grimm²,

Fehn³

et al. 2023

Ardeola

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Summary Most populations of the European Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca are decreasing. Different reasons for the decline are discussed, including biotic interactions and climate change. It is evident that many studies have been conducted in populations depending completely on nest boxes, but the influence of this artificial support on population dynamics is not well understood. We investigated the population dynamics of the Pied Flycatcher in the Kottenforst, an old-growth forest in western Germany, using recent data as well as historical records. We also determined the proportion of pairs breeding in nest boxes vs. natural nesting places. Specifically, we quantitatively analysed forest structure around tree holes occupied by the Pied Flycatcher. We found a continuous increase in population size since its establishment in the 1960s, which contrasts with overall long-term population trends in Europe as well as the regional trend. Whereas importance of nest boxes decreased over recent years, the majority of pairs are occupying tree holes for breeding, which are abundant in the richly structured, open old-growth forest. This forest structure seems to be optimal for the Pied Flycatcher since it allows flying insects to be hunted close to the nest. Finally, we discuss how forest structure and age as well as tree hole and insect availability may determine population trends of the Pied Flycatcher and highlight the importance of long-term studies. Abrahamczyk, S., Grimm, J., Fehn, M. & Stiels, D. (2023). Long-term decoupling of a local population trend of the European Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca from nest box abundance indicates the importance of old-growth forest. Ardeola, 70: 185-200.

show abstract

Spatial consistency in drivers of population dynamics of a declining migratory bird

Cited by 17 publications

References 62 publications

Partitioning variance in population growth for models with environmental and demographic stochasticity

Partitioning variance in population growth for models with environmental and demographic stochasticity

Partitioning variance in population growth for models with environmental and demographic stochasticity

Long-Term Decoupling of a Local Population Trend of the European Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca from Nest Box Abundance Indicates the Importance of Old-Growth Forest

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About