Spatial Models of Party Competition

Abstract

The use of spatial ideas to interpret party competition is a universal phenomenon of modern politics. Such ideas are the common coin of political journalists and have extraordinary influence in the thought of political activists. Especially widespread is the conception of a liberal-conservative dimension on which parties maneuver for the support of a public that is itself distributed from left to right. This conception goes back at least to French revolutionary times and has recently gained new interest for an academic audience through its ingenious formalization by Downs and others. However, most spatial interpretations of party competition have a very poor fit with the evidence about how large-scale electorates and political leaders actually respond to politics. Indeed, the findings on this point are clear enough so that spatial ideas about party competition ought to be modified by empirical observation. I will review here evidence that the “space” in which American parties contend for electoral support is very unlike a single ideological dimension, and I will offer some suggestions toward revision of the prevailing spatial model.

Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe

“…As Stokes (1963) long ago observed, the economy offers the perfect example of a valence issue. Among voters, consensus prevails, as everyone wants economic prosperity.…”

Lealtad y castigo: comportamiento electoral en Costa Rica

“…Por ello resulta intrigante indagar con mayor profundidad las preferencias del voto en un país donde la mayoría del electorado asiste a las urnas durante las elecciones nacionales. 1 Las investigaciones empíricas en ciencia política han acumulado una serie de variables en torno a la decisión del voto, las cuales comprenden tanto de factores de largo como de corto plazo (Miller y Niemi, 2002), incluyendo las características sociodemográficas (Lazarsfeld et al, 1948;Lipset, 1987), la identificación partidaria (Campbell et al, 1960), la proximidad ideológica (Downs, 1957), la evaluación gubernamental (Fiorina, 1981) y económica (Lewis-Beck y Stegmaier, 2007, Lewis-Beck y Stegmaier, 2013), los temas (issues) de valencia y posición (Stokes, 1963) y los efectos de líderes y campañas (Bartels, 2002;Dilliplane, 2014;Iyngar y Simon, 2000;Lawson et al, 2010). Varios trabajos han asumido enfoques multifactoriales en los cuales las distintas variables se disputan por proveer el máximo potencial explicativo, por ejemplo en elecciones de Estados Unidos (Clarke, et al 2015), Italia (Bellucci y Segatti, 2010), Reino Unido (Clarke et al, 2004) y América Latina (Carlin, Singer, y Zechmeister, 2015;Nadeau et al, 2017).…”

Competition between Specialized Candidates

“…Our model focuses on policy areas that Stokes (1963) calls valence issues. That is, all voters in our model agree that a higher output in both public goods (say, a low crime rate, the quality of schooling etc.)…”

“…The key departure of our model from previous literature is that we assume that candidates have differential abilities in the different policy areas. To keep our model simple, we abstract from horizontal issues that Stokes (1963) calls "position issues", i.e. policy questions like abortion, gay marriage or gun control in which voters disagree over the desired outcome, and in which the issue of "implementation ability" is evidently less important.…”