Spatial Pattern Simulation of Land Use Based on FLUS Model under Ecological Protection: A Case Study of Hengyang City

Zhang, Chuchu; Peng, Wang; Ping-sheng, Xiong; Li, Chunhong; Quan, Bin

doi:10.3390/su131810458

Cited by 22 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…After referring to existing studies, consulting with relevant experts, and repeated adjustments, the probability of land use transfer under each scenario was set [50,[65][66][67]. (2) ED scenario The land use in the economic development scenario is mainly referred to as the development plan of the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration (a guidance document issued by the Chinese government in 2018) and the overall land use plan of each city.…”

Section: Multi-scenario Simulation Settingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China

Yang

2022

Sustainability

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Rapid urbanization and human activities enhanced threats to the degradation of various ecosystem services in modern urban agglomerations. This study explored the response of ecosystem service values (ESVs) to land use changes and the trade-offs among various ESVs in urban agglomerations under different future development scenarios. The patch-general land use simulation (PLUS) model and ESV calculation method were used to simulate the ESVs of Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration under the Business As Usual scenario (BAU), Ecological Conservation scenario (EC), and Economic Development scenario (ED) in 2030. Global and local Moran’s I were used to detect the spatial distribution pattern, and correlation analysis was used to measure trade-offs among ecosystem services. The results showed that: (1) The simulated result of land use in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration showed high accuracy compared to the actual observed result of the same period, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.912. From 2000 to 2030, land use changes were significant, with the rapid decrease in farmland and an increase in construction land. The area of woodland increased significantly under the EC scenario, and the area of construction land increased rapidly under the ED scenario. (2) The decline of total ESV was CNY 218 million from 2000 to 2020, and ESVs remained the downward trend in the BAU and ED scenarios compared to 2020, decreasing by CNY 156 million and CNY 4731 million, respectively. An increasing trend of ESV showed under the EC scenario, with a growth of CNY 849 million. (3) Significant spatial autocorrelation showed in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, as the Global Moran’s I were all positive and the p-values were zero. The ESV grids mainly showed “High-High” clusters in the mountainous areas and “Low-Low” clusters in plain areas. Except for food production, a majority of ecosystem services exhibited positive synergistic relationships. In future planning and development, policymakers should focus on the coordinated development of the urbanization process and ecological preservation to build an ecological safety pattern.

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Section: Multi-scenario Simulation Settingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China

Yang

2022

Sustainability

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“…A range of international scientific research programs have been launched to study land use change, including the Land Use and Cover Change Project, and the Global Land Project and Land Suitability Analysis [2][3][4]. The rules that govern the changes and optimization of land use/land space have always been important scientific issues in geography in the context of China's construction of an ecological civilization, new urbanization, and the coordinated development of urban and rural areas [5][6][7][8][9]. With the publication of the 14th Five-Year Plan for China's National Economic and Social Development and its long-term goals for 2035, designing a new land use and space development pattern to combine ecological protection with socio-economic development has become the main aim of regional coordinated development [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi-Scenario Simulation and Optimization of Land Use with a Markov–FLUS Coupling Model: A Case Study in Xiong’an New Area, China

et al. 2022

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Multi-scenario simulation and pattern optimization of land use plays a role in improving regional functionality and balancing anthropogenic and natural environments. The simulation of future land use can provide a reference to demark the regional urban development boundary and identify spaces for ecological protection and agricultural development. Policy makers can use the simulated dynamic process to identify problems in the current trend of regional land use change. On the basis of land use data for Xiong’an New Area, China in 2010, 2015, and 2020, this paper established four scenarios to meet the planning requirements for this region: comprehensive evolution, protection of basic farmland, control of construction land, and prioritization of ecological protection. We used an optimized Markov–FLUS coupling model to simulate future land use changes. We found that the land suitability probability in the four scenarios successfully calculated the effect of land expansion in Xiong’an New Area. In 2010–2015 and 2015–2020, the overall accuracy was 0.9827 and 0.8805, respectively, and Kappa was 0.9675 and 0.7892, respectively. In 2035, the simulation results from the four scenarios and the eight land types were significantly different. Construction land, water area, wetland, and woodland increased by approximately 380%, 178%, 137%, and 3224%, respectively, while dry land and rural land decreased by approximately 55% and 43%, respectively. The multi-scenario simulation results were able to couple production, living, and ecological needs to optimize the spatial pattern and resource allocation in Xiong’an New Area. The scenarios provide new strategies to control population growth, permanently protect essential farmland, and restrict urban development.

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“…Both have led to the rapid growth in land change size and intensity. With LULC structure statistics and a transition matrix, scientists will be able to identify land patterns and transition size [ 43 , 64 ]. However, scientists need to pay attention to what is driving category increases, decreases, and transition size.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…China has experienced unprecedented economic growth and urbanization since the launch of economic reforms in the late 1970s, which also brings a drastic change in the spatiotemporal pattern of LULC [ 42 ]. In several study cases, many scientists have investigated the LULC of urban agglomerations and developed areas in China [ 43 ], such as Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei [ 44 ], the Yangtze River Delta [ 45 ], Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area [ 46 , 47 ] and national central cities [ 48 ]. However, socioeconomic development of urban areas in different regions, different cultures, and different levels often experiences various LULC change processes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent decades, Hengyang’s rapid economic development has been attended by a large population that has increased in concentration and urban expansion and sprawl, which result in the buildup of pressure on land and in the reduction of agricultural land and forests [ 49 ]. In the past, several scholars have studied the land change in Hengyang from the perspectives of ecological security of land [ 50 ], urban boundary delineation [ 51 ], projection under a single scenario [ 43 ], and urban expansion simulation [ 52 ]. However, the in-depth quantitative analysis of a long-term LULC change in Hengyang is still lacking.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Intensity Characteristics and Multi-Scenario Projection of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Hengyang, China

Deng

Quan

2022

IJERPH

Self Cite

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Intensity analysis has generally been applied as a top-bottom hierarchical accounting method to understand regional dynamic characteristics of land use and land cover (LULC) change. Given the inconvenience of transition level in the detailed and overall presentation of various category transitions at multiple intervals, a novel transition pattern is proposed to represent the transition’s size and intensity and to intuitively identify the stationary mode of transition, which helps the transition level to connect to the mode with the process. An intensity analysis was conducted to communicate the transition between LULC categories in Hengyang from 1980 to 2015. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was employed for multi-scenario projection from 2015 to 2045. From 1980 to 2015, 2005 was a significant turning point in the speed of LULC change in Hengyang, and the change rate after this time point was three times that before the time point. The gain of built-up and bare, and the loss of cultivated was always active. The reason for the large loss of forest is that forest comprises the largest proportion of Hengyang. The loss of cultivated and the loss of forest contributing to the built-up’s gain is much larger, but the mechanism behind the transition differed. A stationary targeting transition mode from cultivated to built-up in Hengyang was detected. The PLUS model confirmed that the area of forest, cultivated and grass will reduce, and the rate of decrease will slow down in the future, while water areas will slightly increase. Our work enriches the methodology of intensity analysis and provides a scientific reference for the sustainable development and management of land resources in Hengyang.

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Spatial Pattern Simulation of Land Use Based on FLUS Model under Ecological Protection: A Case Study of Hengyang City

Cited by 22 publications

References 31 publications

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China

A Multi-Scenario Simulation and Optimization of Land Use with a Markov–FLUS Coupling Model: A Case Study in Xiong’an New Area, China

Intensity Characteristics and Multi-Scenario Projection of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Hengyang, China

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