Spatial Risk Distribution of Dengue Based on the Ecological Niche Model of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Central Mexican Highlands

Abstract

Dengue is the most important viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, predominantly Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) (Diptera:Culicidae). Forty percent of the world’s population is at risk of contracting the disease, and a large area of Mexico presents suitable environmental conditions for the life cycle of Ae. aegypti. In particular, the Central Mexican Highlands have a high population density, increasing the risk of transmission and propagation of dengue. In the present study, the potential distribution of Ae. aegypti was modeled under an ecological niche approach using the maximum entropy technique with the aim of determining the spatial risk distribution of dengue. The final model of five variables (minimum temperature of the coldest month |Bio6|, precipitation of the wettest month |Bio13|, precipitation seasonality |Bio15|, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and relative humidity) contributed to more than 90% of the model’s performance. The results of the potential distribution model were then compared with the number of dengue cases per locality during the 2009–2015 period considering four suitability of presence categories. Category 4 corresponded with the highest suitability of presence (0.747 to 1) and the greatest risk of dengue (odds ratio [OR] = 103.27; P < 0.001). In conclusion, the present ecological niche model represents an important tool for the monitoring of dengue and the identification of high-risk areas.

Spatial Model of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Risk: Scoping Review

“…Half (51.11%) of the studies were conducted in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand (Figure 3). The most extended surveillance data time frame was 24 years (33), followed by 18 years (41).…”

“…Population density data were used in the 23 articles reviewed. Demographic data used several predictors including age, gender, skin color, occupation, and sex used in 16 studies of 45 studies reviewed (4,5,7,8,9,15,18,21,31,34,35,37,38,40,41,44). Meanwhile, the predictors used in social and economic data include; housing type, residential buffer, urban proportion, proximity to road/road network, toilet type, mean distance to hospital, poverty incidence, number of household rooms, number of persons per household, crowding, duration of residence, people who did not study nor worked, following any type of study, having a job, household density and gross domestic product (GDP).…”

Pisos altitudinales y su relación con la Prevalencia de Infección de las Enfermedades Tropicales Desatendidas del Ecuador. Revisión Sistemática

“…Finalmente, al correlacionar las variables en estudio se encontró que, para Dengue, Chagas, Leishmaniosis, Lepra, Cisticercosis y Geohelmintiasis se obtuvo una correlación significativa y positiva lo que podría significar que mientras más altitud mayor es la prevalencia de infección de las patologías en estudio, siendo mucho más significativa la correlación obtenida para Leishmaniosis (0,87) y Geohelmintiasis (0,99). El estudio realizado por Ordoñez-Sierra (61) confirmo la presencia de Ae. aegypti sobre 2.000 msnm, encontrando similitudes positivas con los cambios de temperatura y la precipitación; mencionan que la presencia del vector es probablemente resultado de la construcción descontrolada de viviendas inadecuadas sin servicios básicos y debido al cambio climático que contribuye a que las condiciones del clima provoque que los nichos ecológicos de las especies de vectores cambien espacialmente haciendo que estas se muevan e invadan regiones que no habitaban anteriormente como podría ser el caso de nuestro estudio para Dengue, Chagas y Leishmaniosis y otras enfermedades transmitidas por vectores.…”

Mosquito Population Diversity and Abundance Patterns In Linzhi, Xizang, China

“…Many infections cause high fevers often accompanied with pain or other u-like symptoms [4] . Mosquito-borne diseases are now being reported at high elevations [5][6][7] . Field studies including mosquito surveillance enable effcient mosquito control and yields knowledge of when and where to take appropriate protective measures.…”

“…The mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are vectors of several globally important arboviruses including dengue virus, yellow fever virus and chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Due to the high risk of transmission caused by many pathogens, mosquito-borne diseases cause considerable incidence rate and mortality [5][6][7][8] , which is a serious public health problem [9] .Changes in the distribution of population and density of mosquitoes are in uenced by climatic conditions, physical geography and human activities [10] , which in turn affect the occurrence and prevalence risk of mosquito-borne diseases [11] .…”