Spatial-temporal heterogeneity and meteorological factors of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Xinjiang, China from 2008 to 2016

Xie, Ling; Huang, Ruifang; Wang, Hongwei; Liu, Suhong

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0255222

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The results www.nature.com/scientificreports/ show that the regression coefficients have different spatial clustering patterns for different seasons. Compared with previous studies [25][26][27] , the AT, ARH, AP and AW factors all have an impact on the number of HFMD cases in Xinjiang. The existing studies have shown that the incidence of HFMD in northern Xinjiang is higher because of its high population density, which is consistent with the results of this study.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 57%

Spatial homogeneity pursuit of regression coefficients for hand, foot and mouth disease in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in 2018

Zhong

Wang

Zhang

2022

Sci Rep

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To explore the complex spatial pattern between the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and meteorological factors [average temperature (AT), average relative humidity (ARH), average air pressure (AP), average wind speed (AW)], this paper constructed a Spatial Clustering coefficient (SCC) regression model to detect spatial clustering patterns of each regression coefficients in different seasons. The results revealed that compared with geographically weighted regression (GWR), the coefficients estimated by SCC method were more smooth with clearly identified spatial and improved edge effects. Therefore, interesting spatial patterns were easy to identify in the SCC estimated coefficients. And then, the SCC method had better estimation accuracy in estimating the relationship between potential meteorological factors and HFMD cases. Meteorological factors had different significance in their effect on HFMD incidence depending on the season. Specifically, the influence of AT on HFMD was negatively correlated in summer and winter, especially in the Altay region, Bayingoleng Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Turpan region and Hami region. Second, AW had positive effects with HFMD in summer, but the AW played a negative role in the whole Xinjiang in winter. In Tianshan district, Shayibake district, Shuimogou district, etc. in summer, ARH showed a strong negative correlation, but in Alar city it had a high positive correlation, however, in winter ARH showed a high negative correlation in Altay regions, Aksu region and other places had negative effects, and it showed a strong positive correlation in Shayibak district. Finally, AP had a strong positive correlation with HFMD in summer in Shaybak district, but in winter, AP showed a strong negative correlation in Altay district and Buxel Mongolia Autonomous county. In summary, Xinjiang should adapt measures to local conditions, and formulate appropriate HFMD prevention strategies according to the characteristics of different regions, time, and meteorological factors.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 57%

Spatial homogeneity pursuit of regression coefficients for hand, foot and mouth disease in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in 2018

Zhong

Wang

Zhang

2022

Sci Rep

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“…However, there was a difference between the northern and southern incidences of HFMD [ 66 ]; therefore, there was some bias in the prediction of HFMD incidence in our study. Third, HFMD occurs because of several factors, including meteorological [ 11 , 13 , 43 ] and holiday effect factors [ 47 ]. However, in this study, the meteorological and holiday effect factors were excluded from the prediction model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence forecasting using hybrid model in mainland China

Zhao¹,

Zhang²,

Zhang

et al. 2023

BMC Public Health

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Background This study aimed to construct a more accurate model to forecast the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in mainland China from January 2008 to December 2019 and to provide a reference for the surveillance and early warning of HFMD. Methods We collected data on the incidence of HFMD in mainland China between January 2008 and December 2019. The SARIMA, SARIMA-BPNN, and SARIMA-PSO-BPNN hybrid models were used to predict the incidence of HFMD. The prediction performance was compared using the mean absolute error(MAE), mean squared error(MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and correlation analysis. Results The incidence of HFMD in mainland China from January 2008 to December 2019 showed fluctuating downward trends with clear seasonality and periodicity. The optimal SARIMA model was SARIMA(1,0,1)(2,1,2)[12], with Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Schwarz information criterion (BIC) values of this model were 638.72, 661.02, respectively. The optimal SARIMA-BPNN hybrid model was a 3-layer BPNN neural network with nodes of 1, 10, and 1 in the input, hidden, and output layers, and the R-squared, MAE, and RMSE values were 0.78, 3.30, and 4.15, respectively. For the optimal SARIMA-PSO-BPNN hybrid model, the number of particles is 10, the acceleration coefficients c1 and c2 are both 1, the inertia weight is 1, the probability of change is 0.95, and the values of R-squared, MAE, and RMSE are 0.86, 2.89, and 3.57, respectively. Conclusions Compared with the SARIMA and SARIMA-BPNN hybrid models, the SARIMA-PSO-BPNN model can effectively forecast the change in observed HFMD incidence, which can serve as a reference for the prevention and control of HFMD.

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“…Global Moran's I index was used to evaluate global spatial autocorrelation. The Lisa cluster map and Lisa significance map were used to describe local spatial autocorrelation[ 17 , 18 ]. Spearman correlation analysis was performed with R software to explore the effect of GERD on the incidence rate of upper gastrointestinal tumours.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meta-analysis on the epidemiology of gastroesophageal reﬂux disease in China

Lu¹,

Li²,

Zhang³

et al. 2022

World J Gastroenterol

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BACKGROUND No large-scale epidemiological survey on the prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) in China has been conducted. China has a large population and a complex geographical environment. It is important to understand the prevalence and spatial distribution of GERD in China. AIM To explore the prevalence and the spatial, temporal, and population distributions of GERD in the natural Chinese population. METHODS We searched Chinese and English databases for literature on the prevalence of GERD in the natural Chinese population. The prevalence of GERD was pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis model. Subgroup analysis was performed according to time, region, and population. We used ArcGIS software to draw statistical maps and trend analysis charts. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was carried out using Geoda software. Spearman correlation analysis was used to assess the spatial distribution relationship between GERD and upper digestive tract tumours. RESULTS Altogether, 70 studies involving 276014 individuals from 24 provinces of China were included. The overall pooled prevalence of GERD was 8.7% (95%CI: 7.5%-9.9%) in mainland China. Over the past two decades, the prevalence of GERD in China has increased from 6.0% to 10.6%. GERD was more common in people aged 40-60, with body mass index ≥ 24, and of Uygur ethnicity. The prevalence was higher in the west and east than in the centre, and there may be a local spatial autocorrelation between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the southeast. GERD was correlated with gastric ( r = 0.421, P = 0.041) and oesophageal tumours ( r = 0.511, P = 0.011) in spatial distribution. CONCLUSION GERD is becoming common in China. The prevalence differs by region and population. The development of appropriate strategies for the prevention and treatment of GERD is needed.

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Spatial-temporal heterogeneity and meteorological factors of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Xinjiang, China from 2008 to 2016

Cited by 14 publications

References 36 publications

Spatial homogeneity pursuit of regression coefficients for hand, foot and mouth disease in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in 2018

Spatial homogeneity pursuit of regression coefficients for hand, foot and mouth disease in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in 2018

Research on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence forecasting using hybrid model in mainland China

Meta-analysis on the epidemiology of gastroesophageal reﬂux disease in China

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