Spatial variability of recent glacier area changes in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia, using Corona (~ 1970), Landsat (~ 2000), and ALOS (~ 2007) satellite data

Narama, Chiyuki; Kääb, Andreas; Duishonakunov, Murataly; Abdrakhmatov, Kanatbek

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.08.002

Cited by 225 publications

(111 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Glacier area in the Tien Shan decreased over the last decades, and in the Central Tien Shan, from which the Aksu headwater streams drain, glacier retreat rates were generally lower than in the outer ranges [Narama et al, 2010;Sorg et al, 2012;Unger-Shayesteh et al, 2013]. For the Chinese part of the Aksu Basin, Liu et al…”

Section: Study Area and Observed Hydrometeorological Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Duethmann

Bolch

Farinotti

et al. 2015

Water Resources Research

172

142

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Observed streamflow of headwater catchments of the Tarim River (Central Asia) increased by about 30% over the period . This study aims at assessing to which extent these streamflow trends can be attributed to changes in air temperature or precipitation. The analysis includes a data-based approach using multiple linear regression and a simulation-based approach using a hydrological model. The hydrological model considers changes in both glacier area and surface elevation. It was calibrated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm with calibration criteria based on glacier mass balance and daily and interannual variations of discharge. The individual contributions to the overall streamflow trends from changes in glacier geometry, temperature, and precipitation were assessed using simulation experiments with a constant glacier geometry and with detrended temperature and precipitation time series. The results showed that the observed changes in streamflow were consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation. In the Sari-Djaz catchment, increasing temperatures and related increase of glacier melt were identified as the dominant driver, while in the Kakshaal catchment, both increasing temperatures and increasing precipitation played a major role. Comparing the two approaches, an advantage of the simulation-based approach is the fact that it is based on process-based relationships implemented in the hydrological model instead of statistical links in the regression model. However, data-based approaches are less affected by model parameter and structural uncertainties and typically fast to apply. A complementary application of both approaches is recommended.

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Section: Study Area and Observed Hydrometeorological Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Duethmann

Bolch

Farinotti

et al. 2015

Water Resources Research

172

142

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“…The total glacierized area is 10 289 km 2 (1.3 % of total 799 261 km 2 basin area) in the Amu Darya basin and 1596 km 2 (0.14 % of total 1 117 625 km 2 basin area) in the Syr Darya basin, as calculated from the Randolph Glacier Inventory version 2.0 (Arendt et al, 2012), which for Central Asia is a compilation of data acquired between 1960 and 2010. Significant reductions in area and volume have been reported for the Tien Shan (Khromova et al, 2003;Aizen et al, 2007a, b;Bolch, 2007;Narama et al, 2010;Siegfried et al, 2012) and Pamir mountains (Khromova et al, 2006) during the last decades.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

Lutz

Immerzeel

Gobiet

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July-September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October-February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

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“…The air temperature in mountainous areas has experienced a sharp increase over the past half-century [7,8], accompanied by accelerated snow and glacier melting as a consequence. Many studies have revealed the significant trend of glacier/snow-cover shrinkage and snowline rising occurring in Tienshan Mountains [9][10][11], and half of its total glacier volumes will catchments ranges from 298 km 2 to 43,343 km 2 , and the elevation ranges from 1049 m to 4638 m. The annual precipitation varies from 118 mm to 778 mm, and the annual pan evaporation is from 560 mm to 1202 mm. The ratio of annual runoff to precipitation across 64 catchments ranges is from 0.10 to 2.04, with an average value of 0.59.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Snowmelt Water Alters the Regime of Runoff in the Arid Region of Northwest China

Bai

Shi³

et al. 2018

Water

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Seasonal snowmelt water from mountainous areas is critical for water supply in arid regions. Snowmelt profoundly affects the parameterization of the Budyko framework, which describes the long-term relationship between precipitation and runoff. This is true in Xinjiang, a representative arid region in Northwest China. However, the effects of snowmelt water on the water balance in this region remain unclear. Based on observed runoff data in 64 catchments of Xinjiang during 2000-2010, we analyzed the effects of meltwater in the local water balance both spatially and temporally through the Budyko curve and redundancy analysis (RDA) methods, and then investigated the influences of changing meltwater on runoff. Inclusion of snowmelt water into the item of the water availability significantly improved the performance of the Budyko equation for predicting runoff. The results of RDA showed that snowmelt water, potential evaporation (PET), and rainfall combined explained 66% of the spatial variations in runoff, while the individual effects of snowmelt water, PET, and rainfall were 19%, 13%, and 1%, respectively, with the interactions among the three variables being 16%. These results suggest that the accelerating changes of meltwater due to climate warming will significantly alter the regimes of runoff in these regions.

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Spatial variability of recent glacier area changes in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia, using Corona (~ 1970), Landsat (~ 2000), and ALOS (~ 2007) satellite data

Cited by 225 publications

References 25 publications

Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

Snowmelt Water Alters the Regime of Runoff in the Arid Region of Northwest China

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