Spatial Variation in Lesser Prairie‐Chicken Demography: A Sensitivity Analysis of Population Dynamics and Management Alternatives

Hagen, Christian A.; Sandercock, Brett K.; Pitman, James C.; Robel, Robert J.; Applegate, Roger D.

doi:10.2193/2008-225

Cited by 62 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…postfledging (i.e., juvenile, SY, and ASY) females had greater prospective ability to affect λ, and made greater retrospective contributions to λ relative to equivalent changes in prefledging vital rates associated with reproductive output. Our results differ from past studies of population dynamics for other tetraonid species, which have generally concluded that reproductive success, especially nest survival, has greater prospective potential to influence λ compared to female survival (Sandercock et al 2005, Tirpak et al 2006, Hagen et al 2009). This can be explained by the fact that sage-grouse are characterized by greater longevity, lower reproductive investment, and a slower overall life history than other tetraonids and most galliformes (Schroeder et al 1999, Saether and Bakke 2000, Taylor et al 2012).…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

“…However, it is thought that like other ground-nesting birds (Johnson et al 1992, Hoekman et al 2002, Hagen et al 2009), nest survival plays an influential role in population dynamics (Taylor et al 2012). As such, conservation recommendations have often been focused on improving nesting habitat conditions (Johnson and Braun 1999, Connelly et al 2000, Taylor et al 2012, Kirol et al 2015.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating vital rate contributions to greater sage‐grouse population dynamics to inform conservation

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Species conservation efforts often use short-term studies that fail to identify the vital rates that contribute most to population growth. Although the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) is a candidate for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, and is sometimes referred to as an umbrella species in the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome of western North America, the failure of proposed management strategies to focus on key vital rates that may contribute most to achieving population stability remains problematic for sustainable conservation. To address this dilemma, we performed both prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses of a life cycle model based on a 12-yr study that encompassed nearly all sage-grouse vital rates. To validate our population models, we compared estimates of annual finite population growth rates (λ) from our female-based life cycle models to those attained from male-based lek counts. Post-fledging (i.e., after second year, second year, and juvenile) female survival parameters contributed most to past variation in λ during our study and had the greatest potential to change λ in the future, indicating these vital rates as important determinants of sage-grouse population dynamics. In addition, annual estimates of λ from female-based life cycle models and malebased lek data were similar, providing the most rigorous evidence to date that lek counts of males can serve as a valid index of sage-grouse population change. Our comparison of fixed and mixed statistical models for evaluating temporal variation in nest survival and initiation suggest that conservation planners use caution when evaluating short-term nesting studies and using associated fixed-effect results to develop conservation objectives. In addition, our findings indicated that greater attention should be paid to those factors affecting sage-grouse post-fledging females. Our approach demonstrates the need for more long-term studies of species vital rates across the life cycle. Such studies should address the decoupling of sampling variation from underlying process (co)variation in vital rates, identification of how such variation drives population dynamics, and how decision makers can use this information to re-direct conservation efforts to address the most limiting points in the life cycle for a given population.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating vital rate contributions to greater sage‐grouse population dynamics to inform conservation

et al. 2016

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“…Nest survival is critical to population persistence in Lesser Prairie-Chickens because survival of juveniles from hatch to the following breeding season has been identified as the key demographic parameter associated with population declines (Hagen et al 2009). Despite the wavering status of the species on the U.S.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactive effects between nest microclimate and nest vegetation structure confirm microclimate thresholds for Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival

et al. 2016

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The range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) spans 4 unique ecoregions along 2 distinct environmental gradients. The Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion of the Southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas is environmentally isolated, warmer, and more arid than the Short-Grass, Sand Sagebrush, and Mixed-Grass Prairie ecoregions in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the northeast panhandle of Texas. Weather is known to influence Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion; regional variation may also influence nest microclimate and, ultimately, survival during incubation. To address this question, we placed data loggers adjacent to nests during incubation to quantify temperature and humidity distribution functions in 3 ecoregions. We developed a suite of a priori nest survival models that incorporated derived microclimate parameters and visual obstruction as covariates in Program MARK. We monitored 49 nests in Mixed-Grass, 22 nests in Sand Shinnery Oak, and 30 nests in Short-Grass ecoregions from 2010 to 2014. Our findings indicated that (1) the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion was hotter and drier during incubation than the Mixed- and Short-Grass ecoregions; (2) nest microclimate varied among years within ecoregions; (3) visual obstruction was positively associated with nest survival; but (4) daily nest survival probability decreased by 10% every half-hour when temperature was greater than 34°C and vapor pressure deficit was less than −23 mmHg during the day (about 0600–2100 hours). Our major finding confirmed microclimate thresholds for nest survival under natural conditions across the species' distribution, although Lesser Prairie-Chickens are more likely to experience microclimate conditions that result in nest failures in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion. The species would benefit from identification of thermal landscapes and management actions that promote cooler, more humid nest microclimates.

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“…Campbell (1972) studied the sex ratio of first year LEPC observed in fall harvests from 1958 to 1968, reporting a sex ratio of 50.3% male to 49.7% female, which corresponds closely to the standard practice in LEPC models of using a 1:1 sex ratio (Hagen, 2009;Godar, 2016;Griffin, 2016;Sullins, 2017). We follow this standard practice, using a fixed 1:1 sex ratio in our predictive modeling.…”

Section: Appendix B Demographic Rates From Literaturementioning

confidence: 71%

A projection of lesser prairie chicken (<em>Tympanuchus pallidicinctus</em>) populations range-wide

Cummings¹,

Converse²,

Moore³

et al. 2017

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Spatial Variation in Lesser Prairie‐Chicken Demography: A Sensitivity Analysis of Population Dynamics and Management Alternatives

Cited by 62 publications

References 33 publications

Evaluating vital rate contributions to greater sage‐grouse population dynamics to inform conservation

Evaluating vital rate contributions to greater sage‐grouse population dynamics to inform conservation

Interactive effects between nest microclimate and nest vegetation structure confirm microclimate thresholds for Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival

A projection of lesser prairie chicken (<em>Tympanuchus pallidicinctus</em>) populations range-wide

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