We used climate-induced variation in fecundity of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides to test the hypothesis that variation in adult input to the larval pool is a driver of connectivity among adult populations of coastal marine invertebrates. We predicted that cold winters will lead to high reproductive output and high recruitment by S. balanoides, while warm winters will result in low reproductive output and low recruitment. Following the cold winter of 2009 to 2010, larval recruitment was exceptionally high (> 6 cm 2 ) in Southwest England, resulting in a range expansion of over 100 km. The following winter was also cold, and recruitment was again high. The winter of 2011 to 2012 was warm, and recruitment was low (~1cm −2 ) throughout Southwest England. These data indicate that recruitment and population connectivity are strongly linked to adult input to the larval pool. We analyzed winter temperature variation over the past 3 decades and found that warm winter temperatures over the 13 yr prior to this study likely led to frequent reproductive failure and the decline of S. balanoides in Southwest England. Continued warming in this region is likely to permanently exclude S. balanoides from this portion of its geographic range. This study illustrates an important role of adult input into the larval pool in controlling population connectivity in open marine ecosystems and also implicates climate variation in determining the range limit of a significant component of coastal ecosystems in Europe.KEY WORDS: Connectivity · Semibalanus · Climate change · Recruitment · Biogeography
Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherMar Ecol Prog Ser 495: [175][176][177][178][179][180][181][182][183] 2014 of variation in recruitment (Hughes et al. 2000, Reed et al. 2009, Burrows et al. 2010) and metapopulation growth (Carson et al. 2011).In this study, we exploit a feature of the reproductive biology of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides that creates annual variation in reproductive output at the spatial scale of larval dispersal to test the hypothesis that adult fecundity appreciably influences the size of the larval pool and population connectivity in open marine ecosystems. Reproduction in S. balanoides is inhibited by warm temperatures above 10 to 12°C (Barnes 1957a,b, 1963, Crisp & Clegg 1960, Crisp & Patel 1969; laboratory studies indicate that a period of 4 to 6 wk at or below 10°C is necessary for reproduction (Crisp & Patel 1969). Recruitment also has been observed to vary inversely to winter temperatures (Drévès 2001). These results suggest that greater reproductive output is expected when adult S. balanoides experience a cold winter than when warm conditions prevail. Sea surface temperature (SST) also varies at a broad spatial scale (25 to 100 km) and, thus, is expected to simultaneously affect the reproductive output of all adult populations within a region. In this study, we test the hypothesis that annual variation in winter SST results in variation in adult reprodu...