Spatio Temporal Analysis of Teak Plantations in the Cauvery Delta Zone of Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract

This paper explains the spatial and temporal variations of Teak (Techtonagrandis), panel data of eight districts viz, Cuddalore, Pudhukottai, Tanjavore, Trichy Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Ariyalur and Karur were used for the period of 24 years from 1996-97 to 2019-20. It was found that Teak area as a dependent variable and twelve independent variables like Barren unculturable, Other fallow, Culturable waste, Current fallow, Cropping Intensity, Total Food crops, Total Nonfood crops, Gross Area Irrigated, Total Rainfall, Price of Teak, Net Area Sown, Gross Area Sown are used for the analysis. The results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) value was 46 percent within the model, 64.95 percent between the model and 54.89 percent for the overall model. The values of the model define that 46 percent of the variation in the area of teak is influenced by the explanatory variables within the model. In main effect, the area of teak is spatially and temporally significant, positively simulated for the price of teak with a 1 percent level of significance. Total rainfall is negative with 1 percent level of significance. In the spatial-panel lag model, the estimate of the parameter ρ was significant at one percent. The theta value is significant at a one percent level of significance. In direct effect, total rainfall shows a negative effect at a significance of one percent and the price of teak also shows that a positive effect at the five percent level of significance. In indirect effect rainfall shows positively significant at 5%, price of teak contributes negatively at 5% significance. The total effect of the model showed the negative effect of the total rainfall at one percent level of significance and the price of teak showed that a positive effect at five percent.The area of Teak expansion was influenced by two major factors like total rainfall and the price of teak. Among these, Rainfallis negatively related and the price of Teak was positively related with the area of Teak.