Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Cold Events and Their Impacts on Population and Economy in Tianjin Binhai New Area, China

Abstract

Extreme weather events, such as extreme cold events (ECEs), are occurring more frequently due to climate change and variability. The ECEs have severe impacts on people's lives and the economy. In this study, we used observational data for the period 1978-2020 from three national meteorological stations and forty-nine automatic weather stations located in the Tianjin Binhai New Area (TBNA), China, to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of ECEs and evaluate their impacts on population and economy. Our results indicate that the annual extreme minimum temperature showed a slight upward trend in the TBNA during the past 43 years. Extreme minimum temperatures were higher in the central part (-15 to -19ºC) and lower in the northern and southern parts of the TBNA (-19 to -23ºC). The cumulative decreases in temperature were higher in the west and lower in the east. ECEs were most frequent in autumn, followed by winter, and least frequent in summer. The months with the most ECEs were October and November. The ECEs lasted longer in the southern part of the TBNA and were shorter in the central and northern parts. The ECEs lasted, on average, approximately 15 days in the south and 7-10 days in most other areas. Places in the TBNA at a high risk of experiencing the ECEs include Gulin subdistrict and other areas in the central part of the TBNA, whereas Zhongtang town and other places in the southern TBNA are low-risk areas. In terms of the impact of ECEs on populations, the central parts of the TBNA such as Hangzhou subdistrict and the northern parts of the TBNA such as Hangu subdistrict are areas of moderate risk; most others are low-risk areas. In terms of the impact of ECEs on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), central parts of the TBNA such as Hujiayuan subdistrict are moderate-risk areas while most others are low-risk areas. Our findings serve as a basis