Spatio‐temporal characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate in semi‐arid region of northern Ethiopia

Yisehak, Biniyam; Shiferaw, Henok; Abrha, Haftu; Gebremedhin, Amdom; Hagos, Haftom; Adhana, Kelali; Bezabh, Temesgen

doi:10.1186/s40068-021-00226-4

Cited by 21 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…It can range from a week to a few years [12]. The total number of months with an index value below −1 during a particular period of time is hence considered the drought duration [74,96].…”

Section: Durationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk in Three Different Climatic Zones in Algeria Using Two Commonly Used Meteorological Indices

et al. 2023

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Drought is considered a natural hazard and has become a recurrent phenomenon in Algeria since the 1970s. Algeria is characterized by three different climates, namely, sub-humid, semi-arid and arid climates. In this study, we aimed to spatiotemporally assess drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in the three climates of three sub-basins, namely, the Seybouse Maritime, Wadi Djelfa-Hadjia and Wadi M’Zi sub-basins. To this end, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) were used to evaluate drought physical characteristics on a 12-month timescale, based on precipitation and temperature monthly data covering the period of 1979–2019. High values of the coefficient of determination (R2) (0.76–0.99) confirmed by low values of the root-mean-square error (RMSE) (0.08–0.49) proved that the drought indices displayed a high correlation. Drought hazard and vulnerability were evaluated based on physical characteristics and socioeconomic aspects, respectively. The results led to the determination of a high correlation between the two indices used; the determination of the main drought events; and the mapping of the drought hazard, vulnerability and risk using a geographic information system (GIS). These findings suggest that the SPI provided the highest intensities, while the longest periods and the strongest magnitudes were given by the RDI. The spatiotemporal drought distributions varied with time from station to station and from sub-basin to sub-basin. Risk maps revealed that vulnerability based on socioeconomic factors controls drought risk.

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Section: Durationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk in Three Different Climatic Zones in Algeria Using Two Commonly Used Meteorological Indices

et al. 2023

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“…3). Drought severity (S) is the cumulative SPI values during the specified drought duration (Yisehak et al 2021).…”

Section: Methods Of Data Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…IDW is works based on a theory developed by a Tobler (1970) "everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things"; hence, points which are close to an output pixel will obtain large weights and that points which are farther away from an output pixel will obtain small weights (Hengl 2009). Furthermore, the IDW is a simple and effective tool to estimate spatial patterns of drought on flat land escapes like the studied rangelands (Birara et al 2018;Yisehak et al 2021).…”

Section: Methods Of Data Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal climate conditions and spatial drought patterns across rangelands in pastoral areas of West Guji and Borana zones, Southern Ethiopia

et al. 2023

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Climate change and its variability adversely impact pastoral livelihoods, and understanding climate variability and its change is important to deduce policy implications for pastoral communities. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to investigate the temporal climate conditions and spatial patterns of drought across the rangelands in pastoral areas of West Guji and Borana Zones, Southern Ethiopia. Temporal climate conditions were performed at the rangeland level, and spatial drought patterns (distributions) were estimated across the sample Kebeles (Kebele is the smallest administrative unit in Ethiopia which works in the Duda rangeland) and Reeras (Reeras refer to the smallest customary administrative unit in the Borana Zonal administration) structures. Station-satellite temperature and rainfall data (38 years from 1981 to 2018) were obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Agency. For data analysis, the Mann–Kendall trend test was employed to test rainfall, temperature and drought patterns, while Sen’s slope was used to test their magnitude of change, and coefficient of variation was employed to estimate rainfall and temperature variability. Standardized precipitation index was used to estimate drought event, while inverse distance-weighted method was used to estimate spatial drought patterns. The study reveals very high temporal rainfall variability with notable disparities in the rangelands mainly attributed to climate change. Besides, the study area exhibits high spatial variability of drought signifying agro-ecological characteristics in the rangelands. In the Duda and Gomole rangelands, annual rainfall increased non-significantly by 0.01 and 0.03 mm per annum, respectively. The annual minimum temperature in both Duda and Gomole increased significantly by 0.008 and 0.007 ℃ per year, respectively, albeit the annual maximum temperature in the rangelands decreased non-significantly by 0.02 and 0.009 ℃ per annum. Both rangelands experienced high annual rainfall variability, increasing annual minimum temperature, drought frequency and severity. Therefore, the outcome of the study is believed to be vital for identifying drought hotspot areas in the rangelands and devising strategies that help to reduce drought impacts on pastoral communities in Southern Ethiopia.

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“…The Drought Indices Calculator (DrinC) software was developed (Tigkas et al, 2022;Surendran et al, 2017) and addressed the drought characterization (Hydrological, Meteorological and Agricultural drought) based on indices, providing means for drought analysis based on drought indices for research and operational purposes (Tigkas et al, 2016). DrinC is a stand-alone software, freely available online (https://drought-software.com/, accessed on 29 April 2022) and it is currently used in more than 145 countries in a wide range of drought-related studies and applications (Shafeeque & Luo, 2021;Sobral et al, 2018;George Tsakiris et al, 2016;Yisehak et al, 2021).…”

Section: Drought Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Future Drought Characterization Under Multiple Drought Indices and Climate Change Impact Conditions for Developing Best Strategic Measures with CMIP-6 Climate Model in Mille Watershed, Lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia

Amognehegn,

Nigussie,

Assega

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The agricultural sector is vulnerable to extreme phenomena such as droughts, particularly in arid and semi-arid environments and in regions where water infrastructure is limited. The objective of this study is to analyze future drought characteristics in meteorological, hydrology, and agricultural droughts under climate change in Mille watershed using three drought indices; Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) and Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI). The study used baseline data (1985–2014) and future (2041–2100) downscaled from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP-6) based on the three Global Climate Models; (MIROC-6, CMCC and MRI) under two scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate future streamflow for two future time horizons 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). as a result, in the future most hazardous Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) event occurred at Kombolcha, Mille, Batie and Sirinka with magnitude and frequency of 2050s (-1.51, 4.76%), 2058 (-1.49, 6.16%), 2063s (-1.52, 5.65%) and 2066 (-1.5, 4.48%) respectively, but in the annual time scale (SDI-12) extreme and severe hydrological drought events occurred 2088 (-2.00) and 2091 (-1.51) in SSP2-4.5 for study area, and also compared to other Mille and Batie stations experienced more frequently agricultural drought in terms of location. Generally, the RDI confirmed a significant drought trend in the past, while the frequency and severity of drought will increase in the future, however relatively less frequent hydrological drought events are observed in the study area and in the watershed both precipitation and streamflow will decline in the wet seasons and increase in the dry seasons. These findings may be useful for preparedness plans, including means for efficient monitoring and timely identification of drought events, is essential for informed decision making on drought mitigation and water management, especially for the water-dependent agricultural sector.

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Spatio‐temporal characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate in semi‐arid region of northern Ethiopia

Cited by 21 publications

References 34 publications

Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk in Three Different Climatic Zones in Algeria Using Two Commonly Used Meteorological Indices

Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk in Three Different Climatic Zones in Algeria Using Two Commonly Used Meteorological Indices

Temporal climate conditions and spatial drought patterns across rangelands in pastoral areas of West Guji and Borana zones, Southern Ethiopia

Analysis of Future Drought Characterization Under Multiple Drought Indices and Climate Change Impact Conditions for Developing Best Strategic Measures with CMIP-6 Climate Model in Mille Watershed, Lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia

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