Background
Below-normal availability of water for a considerable period of time induces occurrence of drought. This paper investigates the Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate. The climate change was analyzed using delta based statistical downscaling approach of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in R software packages. The meteorological drought was assessed using the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI).
Results
The result of climate change projections showed that the average annual minimum temperature will be increased by about 0.8–2.9 °C. The mean annual maximum temperature will be also increased by 0.9–3.75 °C. The rainfall projection generally showed an increasing trend, it exhibited an average annual increase of 3.5–13.4 % over the study area. The projected drought events reached its maximum severity indicated extreme drought in the years 2043, 2044, 2073, and 2074. The RDI value shows drought will occurred after 1–6 and 2–7 years under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios respectively over the study area. Almost more than 72 % of the current and future spatial coverage of drought in the study area will be affected by extreme drought, 22.3 % severely and 5.57 % also moderate drought.
Conclusions
Therefore, the study helps to provide useful information for policy decision makers to implement different adaptation and mitigation measures of drought in the region.
Hydrological extreme events such as floods and drought are common in Ethiopia which eventually causes environmental hazards. Kulfo River is one of Southern Ethiopian Rift Valley Basin that has experienced flooding for years. Therefore, this study aimed characteristics of hydrological extremes in the Kulfo River, which is important for effective drought and flood monitoring and early warning systems. The hydrological drought was assessed using the streamflow drought index (SDI). Flood frequency distribution (FFD) software package was deployed to determine the flood frequency curve of the Kulfo River. The goodness-of-fit test results showed that the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distribution was found the best-fit probability distribution model in the Kulfo River, while the results of SDI values showed that extreme drought events were observed in 1991, 1992, and 2014 with magnitudes ranging from − 2.04 to − 2.7, − 2.0 to − 2.3, and − 2.10 to − 2.24, respectively, which cause reduction of lake level, lowing of groundwater level, and decreased the amount of river flow. SDI value indicated 6-year drought duration has occurred with the relative frequency of 20% in the 3-and 6-month timescales. The flood frequency results show the lowest probability of having flood magnitude has affected the river morphology. The study provides valuable information for policy and decision makers to implement different adaptation and mitigation measures for extreme hydrological events in the Kulfo River.
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