Spatio-temporal cluster and distribution of human brucellosis in Shanxi Province of China between 2011 and 2016

Abstract

In recent years, the incidence of human brucellosis (HB) in the Shanxi province has ranked to be the top five among the 31 China provinces. HB data in Shanxi province between 2011 and 2016 were collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Spatial and temporal distribution of HB was evaluated using spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scan analysis. The global Moran’s I index ranged from 0.37 to 0.50 between 2011 and 2016 (all P < 0.05), and the “high-high” clusters of HB were located at the northern Shanxi, while the “low-low” clusters in the central and southeastern Shanxi. The high-incidence time interval was between March and July with a 2-fold higher risk of HB compared to the other months in the same year. One most likely cluster and three secondary clusters were identified. The radius of the most likely cluster region was 158.03 km containing 10,051 HB cases. Compared to the remaining regions, people dwelling in the most likely region were reported 4.50-fold ascended risk of incident HB. HB cases during the high-risk time interval of each year were more likely to be younger, to be males or to be farmers or herdsman than that during the low-risk time interval. The HB incidence had a significantly high correlation with the number of the cattle or sheep especially in the northern Shanxi. HB in Shanxi showed unique spatio-temporal clustering. Public health concern for HB in Shanxi should give priority to the northern region especially between the late spring and early summer.

Search trends and prediction of human brucellosis using Baidu index data from 2011 to 2018 in China

“…There was no consistent pattern in incidence from 2011 to 2016; however, after 2016, there has been a distinct decrease. Other studies have also drawn the same conclusion either nationally or provincially [7][8][9] . The areas with brucellosis outbreak are mainly distributed in the northern provinces 10 .…”

Seroprevalence of human brucellosis and molecular characteristics of Brucella strains in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region of China, from 2012 to 2016

“…In the last 12 years, brucellosis has re-emerged in most regions of China, showing an annual increase in animal and human infections during this period [21,22]. The prevalence and dissemination of animals (sheep) brucellosis were very serious, resulting to extensive human brucellosis and incidence rate of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was the ranked top three in Chinese provinces [19].…”

Comparison of ARIMA model and XGBoost model for prediction of human brucellosis in mainland China: a time-series study

“…12 It is classified as a class B statutory infectious disease in China 3 and is considered a public health problem endangering health and property in China. [15][16][17] Early warning is important for controlling or reducing the risk of infectious disease outbreaks, and it is therefore vital to ensure the accuracy of Brucellosis predictions.…”