Spatio-temporal development of high-mountain lakes in the headwaters of the Amu Darya River (Central Asia)

Mergili, Martin; Müller, Johannes P.; Schneider, Jean F.

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.04.001

Cited by 96 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Khromova et al, 2006;Haritashya et al, 2009;Mergili et al, 2012a), favouring the development of lakes in the glacier forefields or in subsiding areas on the glaciers. Mergili et al (2013b) detected a total number of 652 glacial lakes in the study area. A GLOF in 2002 caused dozens of fatalities, several more lakes are susceptible to sudden drainage (Mergili and Schneider, 2011;see Fig.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 93%

“…3d). The lakes in the study area are covered by the comprehensive lake inventory presented by Mergili et al (2013b), providing detailed information on 1640 lakes (see Table 1; see Fig. 3d).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The derivation of S lo,i builds on the following key parameters: (i) lake type, indicating the dam material; (ii) mode of lake drainage; (iii) lake evolution (development of the lake area since 1968; Mergili et al, 2013b); (iv) dam geometry; (v) permafrost susceptibility; and (vi) seismic susceptibility (see Table 1). Table 7 shows the scoring scheme applied.…”

Section: Lake Outburst Hazard Indicatormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Table 7 shows the scoring scheme applied. The lake type (Mergili et al, 2013b) is taken as basis, with glacial lakes receiving the highest score. Dams with seepage are considered more susceptible to failure than dams with surface runoff, and growing lakes are considered more susceptible than stable or shrinking ones.…”

Section: Lake Outburst Hazard Indicatormentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Regional-scale analysis of high-mountain multi-hazard and risk indicators in the Pamir (Tajikistan) with GRASS GIS

Gruber

Mergili

2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. We present a model framework for the regionalscale analysis of high-mountain multi-hazard and -risk indicators, implemented with the open-source software package GRASS GIS. This framework is applied to a 98 300 km 2 study area centred in the Pamir (Tajikistan). It includes (i) rock slides, (ii) ice avalanches, (iii) periglacial debris flows and (iv) lake outburst floods. First, a hazard indicator is assigned to each relevant object (steep rock face, glacier or periglacial slope, lake). This indicator depends on the susceptibility and on the possible event magnitude. Second, the possible travel distances, impact areas and, consequently, impact hazard indicators for all types of processes are computed using empirical relationships. The impact hazard indicators are finally superimposed with an exposure indicator derived from the type of land use, resulting in a raster map of risk indicators finally discretized at the community level. The analysis results are presented and discussed at different spatial scales. The major outcome of the study, a set of comprehensive regional-scale hazard and risk indication maps, shall represent an objective basis for the prioritization of target communities for further research and risk mitigation measures.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Lake Outburst Hazard Indicatormentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Lake Outburst Hazard Indicatormentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Regional-scale analysis of high-mountain multi-hazard and risk indicators in the Pamir (Tajikistan) with GRASS GIS

Gruber

Mergili

2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…One of the consequences thereof consists in the formation and growth of lakes, some of which are subject to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which may evolve into destructive debris flows Mergili et al, 2013;Gruber and Mergili, 2013). No records of historic GLOFs in the test area are known to the authors.…”

Section: Area Description and Model Parameterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

r.randomwalk v1, a multi-functional conceptual tool for mass movement routing

2015

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Abstract. We introduce r.randomwalk, a flexible and multifunctional open-source tool for backward and forward analyses of mass movement propagation. r.randomwalk builds on GRASS GIS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System -Geographic Information System), the R software for statistical computing and the programming languages Python and C. Using constrained random walks, mass points are routed from defined release pixels of one to many mass movements through a digital elevation model until a defined break criterion is reached. Compared to existing tools, the major innovative features of r.randomwalk are (i) multiple break criteria can be combined to compute an impact indicator score; (ii) the uncertainties of break criteria can be included by performing multiple parallel computations with randomized parameter sets, resulting in an impact indicator index in the range 0-1; (iii) built-in functions for validation and visualization of the results are provided; (iv) observed landslides can be back analysed to derive the density distribution of the observed angles of reach. This distribution can be employed to compute impact probabilities for each pixel. Further, impact indicator scores and probabilities can be combined with release indicator scores or probabilities, and with exposure indicator scores. We demonstrate the key functionalities of r.randomwalk for (i) a single event, the Acheron rock avalanche in New Zealand; (ii) landslides in a 61.5 km 2 study area in the Kao Ping Watershed, Taiwan; and (iii) lake outburst floods in a 2106 km 2 area in the Gunt Valley, Tajikistan.

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How well can we simulate complex hydro‐geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi‐lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)

Mergili

Emmer

Juřicová

et al. 2018

Earth Surf Processes Landf

Self Cite

139

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Changing high‐mountain environments are characterized by destabilizing ice, rock or debris slopes connected to evolving glacial lakes. Such configurations may lead to potentially devastating sequences of mass movements (process chains or cascades). Computer simulations are supposed to assist in anticipating the possible consequences of such phenomena in order to reduce the losses. The present study explores the potential of the novel computational tool r.avaflow for simulating complex process chains. r.avaflow employs an enhanced version of the Pudasaini (2012) general two‐phase mass flow model, allowing consideration of the interactions between solid and fluid components of the flow. We back‐calculate an event that occurred in 2012 when a landslide from a moraine slope triggered a multi‐lake outburst flood in the Artizón and Santa Cruz valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, involving four lakes and a substantial amount of entrained debris along the path. The documented and reconstructed flow patterns are reproduced in a largely satisfactory way in the sense of empirical adequacy. However, small variations in the uncertain parameters can fundamentally influence the behaviour of the process chain through threshold effects and positive feedbacks. Forward simulations of possible future cascading events will rely on more comprehensive case and parameter studies, but particularly on the development of appropriate strategies for decision‐making based on uncertain simulation results. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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Spatio-temporal development of high-mountain lakes in the headwaters of the Amu Darya River (Central Asia)

Cited by 96 publications

References 50 publications

Regional-scale analysis of high-mountain multi-hazard and risk indicators in the Pamir (Tajikistan) with GRASS GIS

Regional-scale analysis of high-mountain multi-hazard and risk indicators in the Pamir (Tajikistan) with GRASS GIS

r.randomwalk v1, a multi-functional conceptual tool for mass movement routing

How well can we simulate complex hydro‐geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi‐lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)

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