Abstract. This paper presents an analysis of the hazards emanating from the sudden drainage of alpine lakes in SouthWestern Tajik Pamir. In the last 40 yr, several new lakes have formed in the front of retreating glacier tongues, and existing lakes have grown. Other lakes are dammed by landslide deposits or older moraines. In 2002, sudden drainage of a glacial lake in the area triggered a catastrophic debris flow. Building on existing approaches, a rating scheme was devised allowing quick, regional-scale identification of potentially hazardous lakes and possible impact areas. This approach relies on GIS, remote sensing and empirical modelling, largely based on medium-resolution international datasets. Out of the 428 lakes mapped in the area, 6 were rated very hazardous and 34 hazardous. This classification was used for the selection of lakes requiring in-depth investigation. Selected cases are presented and discussed in order to understand the potentials and limitations of the approach used. Such an understanding is essential for the appropriate application of the methodology for risk mitigation purposes.

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Mergili, M., Kopf, C., Müllebner, B. and Schneider, J.F., 2012. Changes of the cryosphere and related geohazards in the high‐mountain areas of Tajikistan and Austria: a comparison. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 93, 79–96. doi:10.1111/j.1468‐0459.2011.00450.x ABSTRACT This paper quantifies recent glacier changes and possible future permafrost retreat in the Austrian Alps and the Pamir and Alai Mountains of Tajikistan (Central Asia), two mountainous areas with striking differences in climate and hypsometry, but also in economy and research history. The aim of the comparative study is to improve the understanding of regional differences as a baseline for further research and for a differentiated evaluation of possible socio‐economic implications. Besides a review of the available literature, multi‐temporal remote sensing of glaciers of selected areas as well as additional helicopter and field surveys were conducted. The Tajik glaciers displayed a differentiated behaviour during the investigation period 1968–2009, with a strong trend to retreat – at least since 2002. More than 100 pro‐ and supraglacial lakes have been forming or growing in the southwestern Pamir. Destructive outburst floods of such lakes have occurred there in the recent past. Almost all Austrian glaciers are in an advanced stage of retreat, a trend which continues at enhanced rates. Comparatively few glacial lakes exist in the direct forefields of the glaciers. Potential permafrost distribution maps for the present and the future were produced for Tajikistan and Austria by adapting an empirical model developed in Switzerland. In absolute terms, the highest loss was predicted for the Pamir. The expected relative loss in the same area is moderate compared to the rest of Tajikistan and particularly to Austria, where the model predicted the disappearance of more than 90% of the potential permafrost until the end of the twenty‐first century.

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