Spatio-temporal dynamics of growth and survival of Lesser Sandeel early life-stages in the North Sea: Predictions from a coupled individual-based and hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model

Gürkan, Zeren; Christensen, Asbjørn; Maar, Marie; Møller, Eva Friis; Madsen, Kristine S.; Munk, Peter; Mosegaard, Henrik

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.11.009

Cited by 14 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Daewel et al (2008);Hufnagl and Peck (2011);Gurkan et al (2012Gurkan et al ( , 2013, on models for predicting larval survival S and growth in relation to the biogeochemical environment have been published, based on the generic model in Letcher et al (1996). These bioenergetic models typically contain 60+ parameters, most of which can only be guessed or taken from other species.…”

Section: A Christensen Et Al: Towards An Integrated Forecasting Sysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards an integrated forecasting system for fisheries on habitat-bound stocks

et al. 2013

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Abstract. First results of a coupled modelling and forecasting system for fisheries on habitat-bound stocks are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically, fundamentally different model subsystems coupled offline: POLCOMS providing the physical environment implemented in the domain of the north-west European shelf, the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea, and the third component, the SLAM model, which connects POLCOMS and SPAM by computing the physicalbiological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the basis of hindcast data.The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin-scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeel stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, even though periodic overfishing seems to have occurred, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock inherent dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2-6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

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Section: A Christensen Et Al: Towards An Integrated Forecasting Sysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards an integrated forecasting system for fisheries on habitat-bound stocks

et al. 2013

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“…Then, the growth and survival of Ammodytes marinus larvae are controlled and supported by the zooplankton peak concentration and the increase of temperature enhancing the growth at the optimal time of matchemismatch (Gurkan et al, 2013), so variation in the time of hatching can lead to potentially different larval growth (Wright and Bailey, 1996) and juvenile size at recruitment. Accordingly, our individuals used for microchemistry and the otolithelength relationship were born in different years and probably seasons (G2, G1 (born in spring 2011) and G0 S2012), which might have effects on size at arrival at Lancieux compared to those of recruits of the year (G0 A2011 and G0 S2012).…”

Section: S0bmentioning

confidence: 99%

Life history of the Small Sandeel, Ammodytes tobianus, inferred from otolith microchemistry. A methodological approach

Laugier

Feunteun

Pécheyran

et al. 2015

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

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“…Otolith-based estimates of hatch dates in the Shetland sandeel population, early-stage larvae captured over the DB by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR), and peak larval survival estimated by individual-based modelling (Wright & Bailey 1996, Gurkan et al 2013, Lynam et al 2013 seem to indicate that February and March covers the most important period for first-feeding larvae; thus we chose to focus on these months in the data analysis (this assumption was tested later in the present study; see 'Estimation of hatch dates', below).…”

Section: Oceanographic Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The horizontal resolution (grid spacing) was 6 n miles, which is a standard resolution used by DMI for coarse-scale applications, and has previously been used to model fish larval drift in the North Sea and water fluxes between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea (e.g. She et al 2007, Gurkan et al 2013, Ulrich et al 2017. The main consequence of this relatively coarse grid spacing is the potential risk of failing to capture the full effect of small-scale eddies and the risk of exaggerating the wind effect.…”

Section: Oceanographic Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During a preliminary investigation, it was observed that the largest sandeel recruitment event on record coincided with a circulation shift in the northwest Atlantic during the winter of 1996, first mentioned by Greene & Pershing (2003) and later coupled to possible circulation reversals in relation to settlement dynamics of 2 species of flatfish in the North Sea (Lacroix et al 2013, Tiessen et al 2014. While many studies have flagged hydrodynamics as playing various roles for sandeel recruitment involving different biophysical levels and larval life stages (Berntsen et al 1994, Proctor et al 1998, Gallego et al 2004, Christensen et al 2007, Gurkan et al 2013, they all agree on the notion that at least the earliest life stages, or first-feeding larvae, should be considered as passive tracers whose fate is dictated by the ocean currents. Although sandeel larvae develop active swimming abilities before they metamorphose at a length of ~40 mm, it is assumed that they generally follow current surface flow until settlement (Christensen et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Oceanographic flow regime and fish recruitment: reversed circulation in the North Sea coincides with unusually strong sandeel recruitment

Henriksen¹,

Christensen²,

Jónasdóttir³

et al. 2018

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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The search for environmental descriptors of fish stock production is ongoing. Although numerous correlations between environmental variables such as food abundance or sea surface temperature have been proposed in the past, few are operational in a fisheries management context today. Reasons for this may include many -but spurious -correlations, the use of higher-level climate-change indicators, and misconceived perception of causal relationships. In the present study, we demonstrate how modelled oceanographic data describing local conditions, combined with a simple probabilistic risk assessment, can be used to forecast fish recruitment. We used the lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus in the North Sea as an example, and focussed on the circulation patterns experienced by the first-feeding larvae on the Dogger Bank. A strong link between the net direction of water transport at the surface and unusually strong year-classes of sandeel was found. For example, the most extreme recruitments only took place in years with a particular type of flow regime in February, which may be associated with the occasional reversals of the North Sea circulation. Using risk ratios, we show the potential for using flow regime in probabilistic short-term forecasts of unusually strong year-classes. Lastly, we propose a hypothesis for recruitment in sandeel which could be extended to other species, and thereby contribute to future studies of predictors in recruitment forecasting.

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Spatio-temporal dynamics of growth and survival of Lesser Sandeel early life-stages in the North Sea: Predictions from a coupled individual-based and hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model

Cited by 14 publications

References 54 publications

Towards an integrated forecasting system for fisheries on habitat-bound stocks

Towards an integrated forecasting system for fisheries on habitat-bound stocks

Life history of the Small Sandeel, Ammodytes tobianus, inferred from otolith microchemistry. A methodological approach

Oceanographic flow regime and fish recruitment: reversed circulation in the North Sea coincides with unusually strong sandeel recruitment

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