Spatio-Temporal Modelling As A Way to Reconstruct Patterns of Past Human Activities

Kolář, Jan; Macek, Martin; Tkáč, Peter; Szabó, Péter

doi:10.1111/arcm.12182

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Still, the sharp increase of settlement density in the Neolithic is parallelled by a still decreasing DF curve, a trend that is reversed only in much later periods. High disturbance rates before the Neolithic are unlikely to be explained by human influence, given the very low occupancy predictions for the Mesolithic (Kolář, Macek, Tkáč, & Szabó, ). DF only starts to increase following the first post‐Neolithic high peak of settlement density (around 3000 cal bp ) and, despite fluctuations in settlement density, inferred DF continues increasing until the present day.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing disturbance‐diversity relationships in temperate ecosystems over the past 12000 years

2019

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Disturbances such as fires and grazing have major impacts on biodiversity. While it has been suggested that species richness is highest with intermediate levels of disturbance, currently there is no consensus due to an absence of data covering large temporal and spatial scales. We developed a new method to examine disturbance‐diversity relationships (DDR) using sedimentary pollen data linked with species’ disturbance ecology. We reconstructed disturbance and diversity dynamics in the region of the European temperate zone over the last 12,000 years and calculated DDR for 900‐year sequential temporal windows. Disturbance frequency was highest in the early and late Holocene, while remaining low in the mid‐Holocene. Diversity increased continuously from the start of the Holocene. Our results demonstrate that over the past 12,000 years DDR changed from hump‐shaped into monotonic increasing pattern. While both highly disturbed and undisturbed sites were strongly impoverished in the early Holocene, as species migrated, biodiversity levels have subsequently affected disturbance regimes with highly disturbed sites now being the highest in species richness. Synthesis. Land‐use changes in the last 4,000 years created an increasingly patchy landscape, allowing invasive species adapted to high‐frequency disturbance to migrate across the landscape. The link between high diversity and disturbed areas is relatively recent and may anticipate even greater disturbance frequencies in future. Our findings also support a hypothesis that species migration, and the structure of the species pool critically determines the response of biota to external factors such as disturbance.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing disturbance‐diversity relationships in temperate ecosystems over the past 12000 years

2019

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“…In order to address this issue of temporal uncertainty while at the same time making use of all the chronological information in the archaeological data, we have adopted a probabilistic, 'aoristic' approach (see previous applications in Ratcliffe 2000;Johnson 2004;Crema et al 2010Crema et al , 1118Crema et al -1121Crema 2012, 446-448;Kolář et al 2016;Orton at al. 2017).…”

Section: Archeological Settlement Data and Probabilistic Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing archaeological proxies for long-term population patterns: An example from central Italy

Palmisano

Bevan

Shennan

2017

Journal of Archaeological Science

121

103

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Raw counts of archaeological sites, estimates of changing settlement size and summed radiocarbon probability distributions have all become popular ways to investigate long-term regional trends in human population. Nevertheless, these three archaeological proxies have rarely been compared. This paper therefore explores the strengths and weaknesses of different kinds of archaeological evidence for population patterns, as well as how they address related issues such as taphonomic loss, chronological uncertainty and uneven sampling. Our overall substantive goal is to reconstruct demographic fluctuations in central Italy from the Late Mesolithic to the fall of the Roman Empire (7500 BC-AD 500), and with this in mind, we bring to bear an unusually detailed and extensive dataset of published central Italian archaeological surveys, consisting of some 10,971 occupation phases at 7,383 different sites. The comparative results demonstrate reassuring consistency in the suggested demographic patterns, and where such patterns diverge across different proxies (e.g. Late Bronze Age/Iron Age) they often do so in useful ways that suggest changes in population structure such as site nucleation or dispersal.

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“…Adopting the relative approach to understand population dynamics in time, we used several modeling procedures (for details, see Kolář et al 2016b). Monte Carlo simulations helped us to quantify the uncertainty in the temporal density of components.…”

Section: Human Activities and Land Use In The Holocenementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The spatial modeling of past human activities is based on parish occupancy likelihood, which is calculated as the proportion of simulation runs in which a parish was considered occupied (for details see Kolář et al 2016b). These values were later interpolated with the natural neighbor method in a geographic information system (GIS).…”

Section: Human Activities and Land Use In The Holocenementioning

confidence: 99%

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2018

PAGES Mag

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Featured products 2k Network Eight new papers were accepted to the 2k phase two synthesis special issue of Climate of the Past (2017; no. 841). Global Paleofire The Global Paleofire Working Group 2 discusses new opportunities for charcoal-based fire history reconstructions (2018, Fire 1). LandCover6k Jed Kaplan et al. perform a systematic evaluation of two widely-used ALCC scenarios (KK10 and HYDE3.1) in northern and part of central Europe using an independent, pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land cover (REVEALS) (2018, Land 6). Rob Marchant et al. explore the cumulative effects of climate and land-use change over millennial timescales in East Africa (2018, Earth Sci Rev 178). Behnaz Pirzamanbein et al. constructed a hierarchical model for spatial compositional data to reconstruct past land-cover compositions for five time periods during the past 6000 years over Europe (2018, Spat Stat 24). PALSEA2 Nadine Hallman et al. reconstruct a high-resolution sea-level curve encompassing the last 6000 years of past sea level in French Polynesia, based on a comprehensive study of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders (2018, Nat Comm 9). YSM Special Issue A paper detailing the first high-resolution Lake Dojran pollen record for the last 12,500 years is the first contribution to a special issue stemming from PAGES 3rd Young Scientists Meeting in 2017 (2018, Clim Past 14). Cover Typical cultural landscape on the low mountains of the Shandong province in eastern temperate China. This landscape has kept its ancient structures with crop cultivation on terraces and grazing above the terraces intermingled with woodland. The species-rich flora, characteristic of this agricultural land, is optimal to study the relationship between pollen and vegetation in cultural landscapes (Li et al. 2017, Veg Hist Arch 26). Image credit: M.-J. Gaillard. News Launch of the PAGES Early-Career Network (ECN) In February 2018, PAGES continued its commitment to supporting early-career researchers and their careers with the launch of the ECN. Find out more and be involved: http://pastglobalchanges.org/ecn/intro PAGES SSC news PAGES' Scientific Steering Committee met in Minneapolis, USA, from 21-26 May to discuss the organization's future plans. Extensions to two working groups, PALSEA and VICS, were approved. Fourteen working group, open and educational workshops or conferences were also allocated financial support. In February, SSC and Executive Committee (EXCOM) members Pascale Braconnot (France) and Darrell Kaufman (USA) were selected for the IPCC Assessment Report 6 Working Group I. Braconnot is Review Editor of Chapter 8 and Kaufman is Lead Author in Chapter Two. And former SSC member and co-chair Sheri Fritz will receive the International Paleolimnology Association Lifetime Achievement Award in June 2018. PAGES congratulates Sheri on this well-deserved recognition of her contributions to paleolimnology. Data stewardship PAGES took another step towards safe and accessible data stewardship by formally signing an agreement ...

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Spatio-Temporal Modelling As A Way to Reconstruct Patterns of Past Human Activities

Cited by 18 publications

References 17 publications

Changing disturbance‐diversity relationships in temperate ecosystems over the past 12000 years

Changing disturbance‐diversity relationships in temperate ecosystems over the past 12000 years

Comparing archaeological proxies for long-term population patterns: An example from central Italy

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