Spatio-temporal rainfall trends in the twentieth century for Bundelkhand region, India

Jana, Chayna; Alam, N. M.; Mandal, Debashis; Shamim, Mohammad; Kaushal, Rajesh

doi:10.2166/wcc.2017.120

Cited by 15 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…While in monsoon and pre-monsoon season, a positive trend is observed for all time scales of SPI except SPI 6 for pre-monsoon in all the 7 districts. A similar result was also found by Jana, et al [60], in which they reported a positive trend of rainfall over the northern part of Bundelkhand (i.e., Bundelkhand-UP) though the time period was different. Overall, no significant trend was found at annual, and other inter-seasonal scales (pre-monsoon, monsoon, and winter).…”

Section: Drought Trend Analysis: Mann-kendall Testsupporting

confidence: 87%

Drought Identification and Trend Analysis Using Long-Term CHIRPS Satellite Precipitation Product in Bundelkhand, India

et al. 2021

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Drought hazard mapping and its trend analysis has become indispensable due to the aggravated impact of drought in the era of climate change. Sparse observational networks with minimal maintenance limit the spatio-temporal coverage of precipitation data, which has been a major constraint in the effective drought monitoring. In this study, high-resolution satellite-derived Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data has been used for computation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The study was carried out in Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh, India, known for its substantial drought occurrences with poor drought management plans and lack of effective preparedness. Very limited studies have been carried out in assessing the spatio-temporal drought in this region. This study aims to identify district-wide drought and its trend characterization from 1981 to 2018. The run theory was applied for quantitative drought assessment; whereas, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test was performed for trend analysis at seasonal and annual time steps. Results indicated an average of nine severe drought events in all the districts in the last 38 years, and the most intense drought was recorded for the Jalaun district (1983–1985). A significant decreasing trend is observed for the SPI1 (at 95% confidence level) during the post-monsoon season, with the magnitude varying from −0.16 to −0.33 mm/month. This indicates the increasing severity of meteorological drought in the area. Moreover, a non-significant falling trend for short-term drought (SPI1 and SPI3) annually and short- and medium-term drought (SPI1, SPI3, and SPI6) in winter months have been also observed for all the districts. The output of the current study would be utilized in better understanding of the drought condition through elaborate trend analysis of the SPI pattern and thus helps the policy makers to devise a drought management plan to handle the water crisis, food security, and in turn the betterment of the inhabitants.

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Section: Drought Trend Analysis: Mann-kendall Testsupporting

confidence: 87%

Drought Identification and Trend Analysis Using Long-Term CHIRPS Satellite Precipitation Product in Bundelkhand, India

et al. 2021

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“…Mann Kendall (Z) values, Significance (α) and Sen's slope (Q) values over Bundelkhand region from 1981 to 2020 direction of drier time with more erratic rainfall behaviour. A declining annual rainfall trend was also observed in the studies conducted byRai et al, (2012),Thomas et al, (2014) Deo et al, (2015),Jain et al ,(2017) andAhmed et al, (2019) which comply with the current findings of the studies.The decreasing trend of rainfall can be due toChaurasia et al, (2021) reported that the deviation in rainfall correlates with forest cover. Thus increasing forest cover which is far below the average recommended by Nation's Forest Policy can be one of the solution to reduce water woes in the region.…”

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confidence: 90%

Statistical and temporal trends analysis of rainfall in Bundelkhand region, Central India

Liansangpuii¹,

Singh

et al. 2022

ECJ

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Three timescale i.e. monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall data of Bundelkhand region, Central India, was analyzed for 40 years (1981-2020). The annual mean average rainfall for the region ranges between 657.7 mm and 1146.4 mm for the studied period with the month August receiving the highest amount of rainfall. The region receives about 90 % of its annual rainfall during South West Monsoon period i.e. from June to September. Temporal trend of rainfall for different timescale was analysed using nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Increasing and decreasing trend were found for the three timescale in which the study was carried out. Annual rainfall trend of Bundelkhand region is found to follow decreasing trend except for Sagar district. A decreasing South West Monsoon rainfall trend was also observed in 11 districts of Bundelkhand region.

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“…The Mann-Kendall (MK) test is a nonparametric test, it was used because it does not require the data to be normally distributed, and is not very sensitive to missing data values [35]. The test has been used to detect both trends and shifts in climate and hydrological time-series datasets [36,37]. The test statistic, S, is based on the null hypothesis that there is no trend or serial correlation in a set of observations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variabilities and Trends of Rainfall, Temperature, and River Flow in Sipi Sub-Catchment on the Slopes of Mt. Elgon, Uganda

Luwa

Majaliwa

Bamutaze

et al. 2021

Water

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The variabilities in rainfall and temperature in a catchment affect water availability and sustainability. This study assessed the variabilities in rainfall and temperature (1981–2015) and river flow (1998–2015) in the Sipi sub-catchment on annual and seasonal scales. Observed daily rainfall and temperature data for Buginyanya and Kapchorwa weather stations were obtained from the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), while the daily river-flow data for Sipi were obtained from the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE). The study used descriptive statistics, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and Sen’s slope estimator. Results indicate a high coefficient of variation (CV) (CV > 30) for August, September, October, and November (ASON) seasonal rainfall, while annual rainfall had a moderate coefficient of variation (20 ˂ CV ˂ 30). The trend analysis shows that ASON minimum and mean temperatures increased at α = 0.001 and α = 0.05 levels of significance respectively in both stations and over the entire catchment. Furthermore, annual and March, April, and May (MAM) river flows increased at an α = 0.05 level of significance. A total of 14 extremely wet and dry events occurred in the sub-catchment during the post-2000 period, as compared to five in the pre-2000. The significant increased trend of river flow could be attributed to the impacts of climate and land-use changes. Therefore, future studies may need to quantify the impacts of future climate and land-use changes on water resources in the sub-catchment.

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Spatio-temporal rainfall trends in the twentieth century for Bundelkhand region, India

Cited by 15 publications

References 27 publications

Drought Identification and Trend Analysis Using Long-Term CHIRPS Satellite Precipitation Product in Bundelkhand, India

Drought Identification and Trend Analysis Using Long-Term CHIRPS Satellite Precipitation Product in Bundelkhand, India

Statistical and temporal trends analysis of rainfall in Bundelkhand region, Central India

Variabilities and Trends of Rainfall, Temperature, and River Flow in Sipi Sub-Catchment on the Slopes of Mt. Elgon, Uganda

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