Spatio-temporal temperature variations in MarkSim multimodel data and their impact on voltinism of fruit fly, Bactrocera species on mango

Abstract

Fruit flies are the most serious economic insect pests of mango in India and other parts of the world. Under future climate change, shifts in temperature will be a key driver of ecosystem function especially in terms of insect pest dynamics. In this study, we predicted the voltinism of the three economically important fruit fly species viz., Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), Bactrocera correcta (Bezzi) and Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) of mango from 10 geographical locations in India using well established degree day approaches. Daily minimum and maximum temperature data were generated by using seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) along with their ensemble, in conjunction with the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) and three time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) generated from MarkSim® DSSAT weather file generator. Historical data from 1969–2005 of these 10 locations were considered as baseline period. Under future predicted climates, model outputs indicates that all three fruit fly species will produce higher number of generations (1–2 additional generations) with 15–24% reduced generation time over the baseline period. The increased voltinism of fruit fly species due to increased temperature may lead to ≃5% higher infestation of mango fruits in India by the year 2050. Analysis of variance revealed that ‘geographical locations’ explained 77% of the total variation in voltinism followed by ‘time periods’ (11%). Such increase in the voltinism of fruit flies and the consequent increases in the infestation of mango fruits are likely to have significant negative impacts on mango protection and production.

Influence of weather parameters on powdery mildew of mango inflorescence in humid tropics of South Gujarat

“…Various biotic and abiotic stresses play an important role for its low productivity in India. Disease and insect-pest infestations are the major biotic stress causing factors reported in India (Choudhary et al, 2017;Gundappa et al, 2018).Mango suffers from diseases at its all development stages. Among them, powdery mildew, Oidium mangiferae Berthet is an important, serious and widespread disease in India and causes up to 90 percent loss when observed in epidemic (…”

“…Various biotic and abiotic stresses play an important role for its low productivity in India. Disease and insect-pest infestations are the major biotic stress causing factors reported in India (Choudhary et al, 2017;Gundappa et al, 2018).…”

Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java

“…The uncertainty of the climate model to produce realistic results can be attributed to the scenario, model, time period, and their predicted number of generations [42]. Several studies have analyzed the uncertainty of climate change on rice production [25,26,[43][44][45][46][47][48].…”

Host plant-mediated effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on growth and developmental parameters of Zygogramma bicolorata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

“…The earth's global average surface temperature has increased by 0.78°C during the 20 th century and it is expected to be increased from 1.8 to 4°C by the end of 21 st century. However, the amount of increase is expected to be different across geographical locations (Choudhary et al ., 2019). Increased CO 2 and temperature is likely to affect plants indirectly via climate change, and directly by producing changes not only in plant growth but also in plant's biochemical cycle (Kimball et al ., 2002).…”