1990s, the biomass contribution of hatchery returns to the total catch amounts to 50% for chum 20 salmon, more than 10% for pink salmon, and less than 10% for sockeye salmon (O. nerka). We show 21 evidence of density-dependence of growth and survival at sea and how it might vary across spatial 22 scales, and we provide some new information on foraging plasticity that may offer new insight into 23 competitive interactions. The marine carrying capacity of these three species is synchronized with 24 long-term patterns in climate change. At the present time, global warming has positively affected 25 growth and survival of Hokkaido populations of chum salmon. In the future, however, global 26 warming may decrease the marine carrying capacity and the area of suitable habitat for chum salmon 27 in the North Pacific Ocean. We outline future challenges for salmon sustainable conservation 28 management in Japan, and recommend fishery management reform to sustain the hatchery-supported 29 salmon fishery while conserving natural spawning populations. 30 31 Keywords: Pacific salmon, ecological interaction, wild and hatchery-derived populations, carrying 32 capacity, density-dependent effect, global warming, sustainable conservation management