Spatiotemporal Estimation of the Olive and Vine Cultivations’ Growing Degree Days in the Balkans Region

Abstract

Olive and vine cultivations are two of the most important crops in Europe, yielding high quality and value food products. The climate change over the Balkans may elevate the agroecological pressure for the established crops and shift their cultivations areas. One of the widely-used agroclimatic indices is the growing degree days (GDD) which accumulates the necessary thermal units for the selected crops. Despite the advances on the agroclimatic research, there are few available methods for spatiotemporal estimation of this useful index. So, this research is focused on the construction of simple and reliable equations for the calculation and projection of olive and vine cultivations’ GDD over the Balkans. The models’ input parameters are the time, the altitude, the distance from the seashore, and the latitude. Its assembly is made by the extracted spatial data, combined with the Agri4Cast dataset for the period of 1980 to 2018 incorporating the regional climate change trend. The results indicate that the most influential parameter is the time, followed by the latitude, for both cultivations. According to the projections, as quantified by GDD, a vast sprawl of olive and vine cultivation areas will have been formed to the northern parts of the studied area. To be more precise, the viticulture could expand spatially by 28.8% (of the Balkans area) by 2040, and by 15.1% to 2060, when the olive cultivations’ area could sprawl 23.9% by 2040 and 20.3% by 2060.

Future Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture: A Review on Recent Scientific Advances

“…The projected spatiotemporal changes of the aforementioned climatic parameters may significantly modify the current viticultural bioclimatic zones, causing their northward extension up to 55 • N, which may represent the emergence of new regions for grapevine cultivation [77]. These tendency is in line with most recent climate predictions based on agroclimatic indexes, which hint to a possible spatial expansion of vine cultivation areas over the northern parts of the Balkans by 15.1% to 28.8% of the studied area [98].…”

The Role of Sequential Cropping and Biogasdoneright™ in Enhancing the Sustainability of Agricultural Systems in Europe

“…The Mountain and Coastal areas shown in Figure 1 were also excluded since the extensive cultivation of herbaceous crops, which constitute the basis of sequential cropping, is not possible there. Subsequently, as explained in Section 2.2., exemplary classic crop rotation calendars were drawn for each region over a period of 4 years, using the Agri4Cast dataset [51], a well-documented portal widely used for agricultural research because of its accuracy and consistency from a spatiotemporal standpoint [52]. Then, according to the most common primary crops used in the classic crop calendars, an inventory of suitable sequential crops for each region was developed, including specific regional yields and biogas yields.…”

Risco climático para oliveira em Santa Catarina

“…Um dos índices agroclimáticos mais utilizados para avaliar a aptidão climática de um local para um cultivo agrícola é a soma térmica -Graus-Dia (GD), porque incorpora a temperatura do ar, uma medição rotineira e um parâmetro atmosférico eficaz (Charalampopoulos et al, 2021). O GD pode ser caracterizado como um índice bioclimático clássico, uma vez que pode ser constantemente calculado utilizando séries históricas, sendo amplamente utilizado para diversas espécies (Fatima et al, 2020).…”

“…Para o cálculo dos Graus-Dia, a definição das temperaturas base (Tbase) e do período efetivo de acúmulo de energia é dependente da biologia das espécies e cultivares. No caso da oliveira, Charalampopoulos et al (2021) utilizaram Tbase = 7 °C para mapear áreas com pelo menos 700 °C dia de janeiro ao final de maio, necessários para o desenvolvimento das plantas na região dos Bálticos. Martins et al, (2019) relatam que encontraram variação dos valores de Tbase entre cultivares e subperíodos de desenvolvimento reprodutivo, variando para a floração entre 7,8 °C a 16,1 °C, amadurecimento do fruto: 13,3 °C a 14,3 °C e maturação: 7,1 °C a 17,2 °C.…”