Species Distribution Modelling predicts habitat suitability and reduction of suitable habitat under future climatic scenario for Sclerophrys perreti: A critically endangered Nigerian endemic toad

Abstract

Sclerophrys perreti is a critically endangered Nigerian native frog currently imperilled by human activities. A better understanding of its potential distribution and habitat suitability will aid in conservation; however, such knowledge is limited for S. perreti. Herein, we used a species distribution model (SDM) approach with all known occurrence data (n = 22) from our field surveys and primary literature, and environmental variable predictors (19 bioclimatic variables, elevation and land cover) to elucidate habitat suitability and impact of climate change on this species. The SDM showed that temperature and precipitation were the predictors of habitat suitability for S. perreti with precipitation seasonality as the strongest predictor of habitat suitability. The following variable also had a significant effect on habitat suitability: temperature seasonality, temperature annual range, precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of wettest quarter and isothermality. The model predicted current suitable habitat for S. perreti covering an area of 1,115 km2. However, this habitat is predicted to experience 60% reduction by 2050 owing to changes in temperature and precipitation. SDM also showed that suitable habitat exists in south‐eastern range of the inselberg with predicted low impact of climate change compared to other ranges. Therefore, this study recommends improved conservation measures through collaborations and stakeholder's meeting with local farmers for the management and protection of S. perreti.

Potential impact of climate change on spatial distribution of two savannah amphibian species in West Africa

“…One of the most important concerns of species distribution models is the assessment of areas in terms of coverage of suitable species habitats (Duan et al, 2016; Hu et al, 2017; Kafash et al, 2018; Nneji et al, 2019; Yousefi et al, 2017). In this study, the results of the assessment of the availability of suitable areas for two savannah species in West Africa in the future indicated a reduction of 5.04%, 6.08% and 6.51%, and 6.66% of suitable areas for H. nitidulus , respectively, under the two scenarios RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 by 2050 and 2070.…”

“…In a study, focusing on identification of amphibian's conservation areas of south‐western Ghana, south‐eastern Côte d'Ivoire, northern Liberia, and the borders of Liberia with Guinea and Sierra Leone using 176 species and environmental variables (climatic factors and land cover parameters), Penner et al (2019) defined centres of high biodiversity of threatened, vulnerable, and endemic species by spatial modelling, but they did not take into account future projections on these species' distribution. More specifically, Nneji et al (2019) studied the predicted habitat distribution for Sclerophrys perreti (Schiøtz, 1963), an endemic toad in south‐western Nigeria, using future climate change models, and showed that temperature and precipitation were the predictors of habitat suitability with Precipitation Seasonality as the strongest predictor of habitat suitability. All these studies focused on threatened or vulnerable and endemic species in the forest and mountain regions, but few studies focused on savannah species, which are more widespread in the West African Sub‐Saharan region.…”

“…More specifically, Nneji et al (2019) studied the predicted habitat distribution for Sclerophrys perreti (Schiøtz, 1963), an endemic toad in south-western Nigeria, using future climate change models, and showed that temperature and precipitation were the predictors of habitat suitability with Precipitation Seasonality as the strongest predictor of habitat suitability. All these studies focused on threatened or vulnerable and endemic species in the forest and mountain regions, but few studies focused on savannah species, which are more widespread in the West African Sub-Saharan region.…”

Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of some selected legumes in Cameroon and adjoining Nigeria border

“…This approach evaluates changes in accuracy between a full model and the models where each environmental variable is omitted in turns (Qin et al, 2017; Schmitt et al, 2017; Urbani et al, 2017). Following past studies (Nneji et al, 2019; Senay et al, 2013), the SDM values were grouped into five classes as follows: not suitable = p < .4, poor = .4 < p < .5, moderate = .5 < p < .7, high = .7 < p < .9 and very high = p > .9.…”

Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Prosthechea mariae (Orchidaceae) and within Protected Areas in Mexico

“…These studies encompass tropical environments [ 14 , 15 ], circumpolar regions [ 11 , 16 ], and mountainous areas [ 17 ]. Some of these works are particularly significant as they analyze the climate impact on species with varying threat levels [ 9 , 18 ], especially endemic species [ 4 , 19 ].…”