Specifying a cascade water demand forecasting model using time-series analysis: a case of Jordan

Abstract

This study aims to develop a model for forecasting water demand for 2021–2030 to examine water availability for municipality uses in the Al-Balqa governorate of Jordan. The method was developed using a time series analysis of historical data from 1990–2010, which comprised yearly and monthly water consumption and socioeconomic factors, including population, income, and climate factors, such as average precipitation and temperatures. The analysis of historical data was conducted using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. The study found that the increase in population, reaching 740,790 inhabitants in 2030, the high level of social life, and the fluctuation of temperature and precipitation exceed the significant water demand, increasing to 69.88 million cubic meters in 2030 from 52.95 in 2020. The time series analysis employed historical data for 2011–2020 indicating monthly municipal water use to measure the model’s validity. The results confirm the model’s ability to forecast water demand. The study recommends intensifying managerial practices to avoid such difficulties that face the water sector to achieve water security at the country’s level.