Spectra and correlations of climate data from days to decades

Weber, Rudolf O.; Talkner, Peter

doi:10.1029/2001jd000548

Cited by 163 publications

(128 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…This behaviour was said to be found in the atmospheric variability by 14 meteorological stations around the globe, but in a later study Weber and Talkner (2001) found differences between these exponent values, depending on the altitude of the meteorological station.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The case a = 1 corresponds to the so-called 1/f noise (e.g., Hausdorff and Peng, 1996). In addition, when 1<α<1.5, then long-range correlations are present (Weber and Talkner, 2001). In other words, the DFA exponent could be assumed as a measure of the long-range dependence (LRD).…”

Section: Data and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The technique that has been proved to satisfy this criterion is the well-established DFA, which stems from random walk theory and permits the detection of intrinsic self-similarity in non-stationary time series (Peng et al, 1994;Weber and Talkner, 2001;Varotsos, 2005a, b;Varotsos and Kirk-Davidoff, 2006;Varotsos et al, 2002Varotsos et al, , 2003Varotsos et al, , 2005Varotsos et al, , 2007Varotsos et al, , 2009.…”

Section: Data and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the scaling effect in global surface air temperature anomalies

2013

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The annual and the monthly mean values of the land-surface air temperature anomalies from 1880–2011, over both hemispheres, are used to investigate the existence of long-range correlations in their temporal evolution. The analytical tool employed is the detrended fluctuation analysis, which eliminates the noise of the non-stationarities that characterize the land-surface air temperature anomalies in both hemispheres. The reliability of the results obtained from this tool (e.g., power-law scaling) is investigated, especially for large scales, by using error bounds statistics, the autocorrelation function (e.g., rejection of its exponential decay) and the method of local slopes (e.g., their constancy in a sufficient range). The main finding is that deviations of one sign of the land-surface air temperature anomalies in both hemispheres are generally followed by deviations with the same sign at different time intervals. In other words, the land-surface air temperature anomalies exhibit persistent behaviour, i.e., deviations tend to keep the same sign. Taking into account our earlier study, according to which the land and sea surface temperature anomalies exhibit scaling behaviour in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, we conclude that the difference between the scaling exponents mainly stems from the sea surface temperature, which exhibits a stronger memory in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere. Moreover, the variability of the scaling exponents of the annual mean values of the land-surface air temperature anomalies versus latitude shows an increasing trend from the low latitudes to polar regions, starting from the classical random walk (white noise) over the tropics. There is a gradual increase of the scaling exponent from low to high latitudes (which is stronger over the Southern Hemisphere)

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the scaling effect in global surface air temperature anomalies

2013

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“…The exponent a = 1 denotes the so-called 1/f noise. Finally, when 1< α <1.5, then long-range correlations are present (Weber and Talkner 2001). A more detailed description of the DFA tool is presented in .…”

Section: Data and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence for two abrupt warming events of SST in the last century

Varotsos

Franzke

Efstathiou

et al. 2013

Theor Appl Climatol

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We have recently suggested that the warming in the sea surface temperature (SST) since 1900, did not occur smoothly and slowly, but with two rapid shifts in 1925/1926 and 1987/1988, which are more obvious over the tropics and the northern midlatitudes. Apart from these shifts most of the remaining SST variability is due to the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Here we provide evidence that the time separation between these two SST shifts (around 60 years) is almost equal to the quasi-periodicity of many natural cycles, like that of the PDO, the global and Northern Hemisphere (NH) annual mean temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, the Southwest US Drought data, the length of day, the air surface temperature, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and the change in the location of the centre of mass of the solar system. In addition, we show that there exists a strong seasonal link between SST and ENSO over the tropics and the NH midlatitudes, which becomes stronger in autumn of the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, we found that before and after each SST shift the intrinsic properties of the SST time series obey stochastic dynamics, which is unaffected by the modulation of these two shifts. In particular, the SST fluctuations for the time period between the two SST shifts exhibit 1/f-type long range correlations, which are frequently encountered in a large variety of natural systems. Our results have potential implications for future climate shifts and crossing tipping points due to an interaction of intrinsic climate cycles and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

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“…[2] In the past decade it has been recognized that multidecadal temperature records are long-term correlated [Koscielny- Bunde et al, 1996;Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997;Koscielny-Bunde et al, 1998;Talkner and Weber, 2000;Weber and Talkner, 2001;Eichner et al, 2003;Monetti et al, 2003;Király et al, 2006], with a correlation exponent g ' 0.7 for continental and coastline regions, and g in a broad range around 0.4 for marine regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term memory in 1000‐year simulated temperature records

Rybski

Bunde

Storch³

2008

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] We study the appearance of long-term persistence in temperature records, obtained from the global coupled general circulation model ECHO-G for two runs, using detrended fluctuation analysis. The first run is a historical simulation for the years 1000-1990 (with greenhouse gas, solar, and volcanic forcing), while the second run is a 1000-year ''control run'' with constant external forcings. We consider daily data of all grid points as well as their biannual averages in order to suppress 2-year oscillations appearing in the model records for some sites near the equator. Our results substantially confirm earlier studies of (considerably shorter) instrumental data and extend their results from decades to centuries. In the case of the historical simulation we find that most continental sites have correlation exponents g between 0.8 and 0.6. For the ocean sites the long-term correlations seem to vanish at the equator and become nonstationary at the Arctic and Antarctic circles. In the control run the long-term correlations are less pronounced. Compared with the historical run, the correlation exponents are increased, and show a more pronounced latitude dependence, visible also at continental sites. When analyzing biannual averages, we find stronger long-term correlations in the historical run at continental sites and a less pronounced latitude dependence. In all cases, the exponent g does not depend on the continentality of the sites.Citation: Rybski, D., A. Bunde, and H. von Storch (2008), Long-term memory in 1000-year simulated temperature records,

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Spectra and correlations of climate data from days to decades

Cited by 163 publications

References 24 publications

On the scaling effect in global surface air temperature anomalies

On the scaling effect in global surface air temperature anomalies

Evidence for two abrupt warming events of SST in the last century

Long‐term memory in 1000‐year simulated temperature records

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