Spot electricity price discovery in Indian electricity market

Girish, G P; Rath, Badri Narayan; Akram, Vaseem

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.09.009

Cited by 28 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…In the literature, bulk of studies examine the per capita electricity consumption as a welfare indicator of economic growth (Yang, 2000; Ghosh, 2002; Yoo, 2005; Wolde-Rufael, 2006; Squalli, 2007; Hirsh and Koomey, 2015; Girish et al , 2018; Akram et al , 2019; Rath et al , 2019, among others).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Convergence in electricity consumption across Indian states: a disaggregated analysis

Jangam

Sahoo

Akram

2019

IJESM

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Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine whether the electricity consumption patterns across Indian states do converge. Design/methodology/approach This study considers 18 Indian states spanning over the period 1970-1971 and 2014-2015, using the recently developed Phillips and Sul panel convergence technique that accounts the multiple steady states. Findings The results provide the following insights. First, the authors find evidence of convergence in electricity consumption among all Indian states. This suggests that electricity consumption patterns for Indian states are converging to a common steady state. Second, to provide broader insights, we further investigate the convergence in electricity consumption among user groups such as agriculture, industry, commercial, domestic and miscellaneous. The results reveal that commercial, domestic and miscellaneous groups are also converging. Third, the non-convergence patterns in agriculture and industry enable us to investigate the possibility of clubs or the multiple common steady states. The results indicate the occurrence of three clubs in case of agriculture and two clubs in case of the industry. Fourth, this study also inspects the relative speed of convergence among the user groups. The results reveal the higher speed of convergence in case of the domestic user group. Practical implications The findings enable policymakers to formulate an appropriate energy policy to accommodate the future electricity demand across Indian states and prioritize low electricity consumption states so that they receive a greater share. Originality/value This is the first study that examines the convergence in electricity consumption across Indian states at aggregate and user groups using a new panel club convergence technique.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Convergence in electricity consumption across Indian states: a disaggregated analysis

Jangam

Sahoo

Akram

2019

IJESM

Self Cite

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“…Studies in literature have acknowledged both facets of a) Electricity Consumption (EC) of a particular country contributing to the Economic Growth (EG) in that country (Yuan et al, 2007;Tang, 2008;Wolde-Rufael, 2004) b) Economic Growth (EG) contributing to Electricity Consumption (EC) of a particular country (Ghosh 2002;Dramani et al, 2012;Akinwale et al, 2013;Hu & Lin 2008). Studies in literature have also established bi-directional causality between EG in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and EC (Girish, 2016;Girish et al, 2018). For an emerging economy and developing nation like India, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays a key role.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of Electricity Consumption, Economic Growth and Fdi in India

2022

ijafr

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India is one of the largest producer and consumer of electricity in the world owing to being one of the most populous country in the world signifying the demand for electricity is only set to grow further. World has witnessed an era of economic growth aided pertinently by electricity consumption and growing demand. With FDI indorsed downright to this vital utilities sector, it becomes imperative to cognize the relationship of Electricity Consumption, Economic Growth and FDI in India. In this study we investigate the causal direction of relationship among Foreign Direct Investment, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in India by using time-series data for the period 1986–2021 and employing econometric models. We find two uni-directional causalities running from Electricity Consumption to Economic Growth and Economic Growth to FDI and a bi-directional causality between Electricity Consumption and FDI. The results of the study provide a novel perspective for policy makers while formulating policies related to the power sector and foreign direct investments in India. The focus of Policy makers should be on enabling electricity service providers to offer best services to commercial and non-commercial participants as it aids in Economic growth of the country. For enhanced economic growth a country like India must have good and world-class infrastructure, efficient and effective regulatory mechanism equitable for all stakeholders, an improved living standard for people of all economic strata and a stable, healthy business friendly environment coupled with policy stability through stable government.

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“…Previous studies have utilized different approaches to forecast the prices of underlying assets, for instance ordinary least squares (OLS) (Aye et al 2015;Birkelund et al 2015;Botterud, Kristiansen, and Ilic 2010;Danese and Kalchschmidt 2011;Van Donselaar et al 2016;Haugom et al 2011;Junttila, Myllymäki, and Raatikainen 2018;Mosquera-López and Nursimulu 2019;Weron and Zator 2014), the error correction model and cointegration (Eksoz, Mansouri, and Bourlakis 2014;Fantazzini and (Bunn and Chen 2013;Girish, Rath, and Akram 2018;Junttila et al 2018;Nakajima and Hamori 2013;Park, Mjelde, and Bessler 2006), the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) type (Bowden and Payne 2008;Charwand, Gitizadeh, and Siano 2017;Ferbar Tratar 2015;Furió and Chuliá 2012;Loi and Jindal 2019;Rostami-Tabar et al 2015;Tratar, Mojškerc, and Toman 2016), machine learning approaches (Lolli et al 2017;Nikolopoulos, Babai, and Bozos 2016;Tang and Rehme 2017;Y. Zhu et al 2019), optimization and networks (Hasni et al 2019;Le, Ilea, and Bovo 2019;Mirza and Bergland 2012;Tande 2003;Zhu, Mukhopadhyay, and Yue 2011), quantile smoothing (Bruzda 2019), and generalized additive models (Serinaldi 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Forecasting Models in an Electricity Market under Volatility

et al. 2021

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Short-term electricity price forecasting has received considerable attention in recent years. Despite this increased interest, the literature lacks a concrete consensus on the most suitable forecasting approach. This study reports an extensive empirical analysis that we conducted to evaluate the short-term price forecasting dynamics of different regions in the Swedish electricity market (SEM). We utilized several forecasting approaches ranging from standard conditional volatility models to wavelet-based forecasting. In addition, we performed out-of-sample forecasting and back-testing, and we evaluated the performance of these models. Our empirical analysis indicates that an ARMA-GARCH framework with the Student's t-distribution significantly outperforms other frameworks. We only performed wavelet-based forecasting based on the MAPE. The results of the robust forecasting methods are capable of displaying the importance of proper forecasting process design, policy implications for market efficiency, and predictability in the SEM.

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Spot electricity price discovery in Indian electricity market

Cited by 28 publications

References 21 publications

Convergence in electricity consumption across Indian states: a disaggregated analysis

Convergence in electricity consumption across Indian states: a disaggregated analysis

Association of Electricity Consumption, Economic Growth and Fdi in India

Analysis of Forecasting Models in an Electricity Market under Volatility

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