Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2): Modeling and Simulation of Control Strategies

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 is spreading throughout the world and all healthcare systems are loaded beyond its capacity. The virus is named as SARS-CoV-2. In this situation, rational decisions need to be made on how the care is provided for patients with COVID-19. The Incidence report, general symptoms and readily available testing kits, different control strategies, the basic compartmental model, and some of the current research on the epidemiology of the disease are discussed and previously published models are reviewed. Modeling this disease helps in understanding the spread, and predict its future to evaluate different control strategies (Social Distancing, Contact Tracing and Hospitalization). Compartmental modeling framework is used in this work. The non-linear equations are formulated and fitted to the cumulative case and mortality data. Analytical analysis along with uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis is performed, and the conditions to achieve disease free equilibrium is evaluated. Finally, Different control strategies are simulated to show their importance. This paper aims to shows the advantage of mathematical modeling and their simulations in times like now, during which the COVID-19 spreading like wildfire. It also includes Pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals in the modeling. The simulations are performed for the model fit to Cumulative Case and Mortality data in the United States of America. The Reproduction number is found to be 2.71914.

Can Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Contain the Spreading of Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in the Asia Pacific Countries?

“…[15,16,17,18,19,20] A control strategy simulation suggested that tightly regulated social distancing can reduce the number of cases during peak time. [21] Both New Zealand and Australia have reduced COVID-19 spreading by a government-driven social distancing strategy. [22] On the other hand, Sweden's government is not tightly recommending a social distancing strategy.…”

Modelling a novel Coronavirus (COVID-19): A stochastic SEIR-HCD approach, with real-time parameter estimation & forecasting for Scotland

“…A deterministic compartmental model that incorporates critical care patients and hospitalisations, with a time (and lockdown) dependent infectious contact rate parameter, is presented in [24]. Here, other model parameters are fixed, based upon examples in the literature, and the initial infection rate and number infected are fitted to real-world mortality and observed new cases data.…”