Spring plant phenology and false springs in the conterminous US during the 21st century

Allstadt, Andrew J.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104008

Cited by 105 publications

(109 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…In the Northwest, these false springs are projected to decline in frequency by the end of this century (Allstadt et al 2015, Peterson and. However, the spatially variable effects on spring onset and false springs may make local predictions of change difficult (Allstadt et al 2015), and minimum temperatures during early spring will still provide conditions for damaging frost events despite the warming trend (Stöckle et al 2010). Earlier and warmer springs will also pose challenges for pest management.…”

Section: Fruit Crop Vulnerabilities and Expected Changes In The Northmentioning

confidence: 99%

Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate

et al. 2017

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Specialty fruit crops represent a substantial portion of the value of agricultural production in the Pacific Northwest. Climate change may threaten water sources, lengthen the dry season, raise temperatures during both the winter chilling period and the growing season, and facilitate the spread of fungal diseases and insects. Such changes have the potential to substantially reduce net returns due to increased input costs and altered yields and product quality. Many management strategies that are already being used to prolong growing seasons in marginal production areas and to improve production and quality in established production regions may also be useful as adaptation strategies under a changing climate. These strategies mostly involve moderating temperatures and controlling or compensating for mismatches between phenology and seasonal weather conditions.

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Section: Fruit Crop Vulnerabilities and Expected Changes In The Northmentioning

confidence: 99%

Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate

et al. 2017

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“…) and extreme events become more frequent (IPCC , Allstadt et al. ), monitoring ecological response to climate anomalies, including warm events such as this one, can help us understand the functioning of future systems (Friedl et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme winter warm event causes exceptionally early bud break for many woody species

et al. 2019

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In many ecosystems, climate is changing faster during winter compared to other seasons.However, we lack basic information about the responses of many species to winter climate change, including extreme warm events. Extreme warm events may have particularly strong influences at the end of winter, when some species begin to break dormancy while the risk of freezing remains high. Here, we monitored bud burst of 101 temperate woody species following an extreme warm event during winter to investigate species responses to this anomalous event and determine whether functional traits predicted species responses. Following six consecutive days of extreme warm temperatures in winter, nearly half the surveyed tree and shrub species had an advanced stage of bud phenology. Responding species were most likely to be shade-intolerant, phylogenetically related, and have weaker dormancy requirements. Based on established species response thresholds to spring temperatures in the region, species were expected to be unresponsive to warm temperatures this early in the year, yet many species broke dormancy. Species responses to this extreme winter warm event highlighted how climate change can alter well-established species-climate associations. In an era of increasing climate change creating novel winter conditions, continued monitoring both long-term and following extreme events is needed to understand new speciesclimate dynamics.

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“…The largest county-level Tmax or Tmin SD is 0.07°C, indicating small temperature variation in projected changes. Warmer temperatures in the MW create the potential for more overwintering of insects (Hatfield et al 2015) and the advancement in the timing of spring greenup with warming may increase the potential for spring freeze events (Allstadt et al 2015).…”

Section: Midwestern Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands

et al. 2017

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Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners across the USA make weather-and climate-related management decisions at varying temporal and spatial scales, often with input from local experts like crop consultants and cooperative extension (CE) personnel. In order to provide additional guidance to such longer-term planning efforts, we developed a tool that shows statistically downscaled climate projections of temperature and precipitation consolidated to the county level for the contiguous US. Using the county as a fundamental mapping unit encourages the use of this information within existing institutional structures like CE and other U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) programs. A Bquick-look^metric based on the spatial variability of climate within each county aids in the interpretation of county-level information. For instance, relatively higher spatial variability within a county indicates that more localized information should be used to support stakeholder planning. Changes in annual precipitation show a latitudinal dipole where increases are projected for much of the northern US while declines are projected for counties across the southern US. Seasonal shifts in countylevel precipitation are projected nationwide with declines most evident in summer months in most regions. Changes in the spatial variability of annual precipitation for most counties were less than 10 mm, indicating fairly spatially homogenous midcentury precipitation changes at the county level. Annual and seasonal midcentury temperatures are projected to increase across the USA, with relatively low change in the spatial variability (<0.3°C) of temperature across most counties. The utility of these data is shown for forage and almond applications, both indicating a potential decline in production in some future years, to illustrate use of countylevel seasonal projections in adaptation planning and decision-making.

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Spring plant phenology and false springs in the conterminous US during the 21st century

Cited by 105 publications

References 47 publications

Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate

Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate

Extreme winter warm event causes exceptionally early bud break for many woody species

County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands

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