SPRINTS: A Framework for Solar‐Driven Event Forecasting and Research

Abstract

Capabilities to predict onset and time profiles of solar‐driven events, including solar X‐ray flares; solar energetic particles (SEP); coronal mass ejections; and high‐speed streams, are critical in mitigating their potential impacts. We introduce the Space Radiation Intelligence System (SPRINTS). This NASA‐invested technology integrates preeruptive metadata and forecasts from the MAG4 system with posteruptive metadata in order to produce high fidelity and preeruptive to posteruptive transitional forecasts for solar‐driven events. To catalog start and end times of the four solar‐driven events, SPRINTS is capable of generating posteruptive forecasts based on automatic detections employed on 30+ years of GOES X‐ray and particle data as well as 20+ years of ACE and DSCOVR solar wind data. The prediction results for 1986–2016 presented here are from the SPRINTS posteruptive capability for forecasting SEPs leveraging GOES X‐ray metadata. We present onset, peak flux, and time profile SEP forecast metrics and results based on expert‐guided, statistical, and machine‐learned decision tree models. Operating on data from a 20 year period, a machine‐learned decision tree model provided the best results for predicting an S1 event (on the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Radiation Scale): 86% probability of detection and 37% false alarm rate. Five flare‐related metadata sets were leveraged in the decision tree modeling. Consistently, flare‐integrated flux, flare heliolongitude, and flare decay‐phase duration were found to be the top three forecasting parameters, while flare magnitude and flare latitude had little to no impact on the SEP forecast model. For the solar‐driven events of March 2012, we demonstrate SPRINTS abilities to forecast solar flares, SEP onset, and SEP evolution.

Space Radiation and Plasma Effects on Satellites and Aviation: Quantities and Metrics for Tracking Performance of Space Weather Environment Models

“…For the solar population modeling, there is SOLar Particle ENgineering Code (SOLPENCO, Aran et al, , ). Other potential SEP models include those participating in the SEP scoreboard (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/sep.php), such as COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP model, Crosby et al, ), SEPForecast, Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF model, Anastasiadis et al, ; Papaioannou et al, ), UMASEP (Núñez, , ; Núñez et al, ), PREDICCS (http://prediccs.sr.unh.edu/; Schwadron et al, ), AER SEP model (Winter et al, ), SPRINTS (Engell et al, ), and REleASE/High‐Energy Solar Particle Events foRecastIng and Analysis (e.g., Posner et al, ; Malandraki and Crosby, ).…”

The Reprise Special Collection for the 2001 Space Weather Monograph

“…Since 2015 seven different author groups have reported their success and limitations in SEP forecasting in SWE. These include the following: Marsh et al () using the SPARX tool; Crosby et al () using the SEPEM tool; Núñez () and Núñez et al () dealing with very high energy events; St. Cyr et al () using coronographs; Luhmann et al () using the ENLIL forecast system; and Engell et al () using the SPRINTS tool. Zheng et al (), noting that Mars is also subject to SEP events, discussed forecast verification of an SEP event observed by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution spacecraft.…”

Statistical Characteristics on SEPs, Radio-Loud CMEs, Low Frequency Type II and Type III Radio Bursts Associated with Impulsive and Gradual Flares

“…The solar energetic particle (SEP) events are often tend to be accelerated by the solar flares and coronal mass ejections-driven shocks [35] [67] [18]. These fast moving energetic protons and associated magnetic field are the main cause for geo and space-weather effects such as electronic damages on satellites [49], radian hazards for polar flights, astronauts, and outages of the power grids [5].The prolonged acceleration of the SEPs mainly depends on different types of accelerating mechanism, source locations and free available magnetic energy [19] [69]. It is generally accepted that the short duration SEP events are accelerated by solar flares [54] [66], and the long duration SEP events are related with CMEs-driven shocks [43].…”