With the rapid development of social economy and people’s increasing requirements for spiritual life, tourism projects are booming. At the same time, in order to improve their competitiveness, tourism regions also pay great attention to the attraction of performing arts projects to the audience, especially the online conversion rate. The original online conversion rate survey method cannot effectively judge the online conversion, and the comprehensive judgment ability is weak. At present, there is a lack of necessary analysis methods in the research of audience online conversion rate, so the research results cannot meet the actual requirements. Moreover, there are some deficiencies in the research depth of conversion rate at home and abroad. In order to shorten the abovementioned gap, comprehensive analysis methods should be applied to focus on online transformation. Based on the abovementioned reasons, this paper proposes a method based on SWOT to build a prediction model of audience online conversion rate. First, SWOT is used to cluster the data of strengths, weaknesses, potential dangers, and competitors and sort the data to judge the importance of different data, so as to improve the accuracy of the online conversion rate judgment results of viewers. Then, SWOT classifies the data to form analysis particles in different aspects and analyzes the co-evolution and optimal results of analysis particles in different aspects. After a simulation test, the SWOT model constructed in this paper is superior to the online conversion rate survey method in terms of calculation accuracy and calculation time and the overall effect is higher. At the same time, the integration of threshold, weight, and other adjustment functions further enhances the analysis effect of SWOT model. Therefore, a SWOT model can accurately and quickly predict the online conversion rate of audience.