Statistical and Simulation Models for Mapping Debris-Flow Hazard

A spatiotemporal probabilistic modelling of storm‐induced shallow landsliding using aerial photographs and logistic regression

“…This study expands the previous studies (e.g. Carrara et al, 1991;Mark and Ellen, 1995;Atkinson and Massari, 1998) to account for the triggering variable, and shows that it is possible to map the overall probability of landsliding at selected sites in a spatiotemporal context using a logistic regression technique. Land-use planners may differ in the level of risk they can afford or accept.…”

“…A landslide hazard map can be constructed by a qualitative combination of maps of site conditions, including geology, topography and geomorphology (Gupta and Joshi, 1989;Anbalagan, 1992), by statistical methods, e.g. discriminant analysis and regression techniques, which correlate landslide occurrence with geologic and geomorphic factors (Rice and Pillsbury, 1982;Lewis and Rice, 1990;Carrara et al, 1991;Mark and Ellen, 1995;Atkinson and Massari, 1998), or by using safety factors from stability analysis (Okimura and Kawatani, 1987). 528 F. C. DAI AND C. F. LEE Varnes (1984) defined natural hazard as the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging phenomenon within a specified period of time and within a given area.…”

“…In this sense, a landslide hazard map should provide information on both the spatial and temporal probability of landsliding in a certain area. However, most previous studies (Gupta and Joshi, 1989;Carrara et al, 1991;Anbalagan, 1992;Mark and Ellen, 1995;Atkinson and Massari, 1998) have focused on landslide susceptibility mapping without due consideration for factors that trigger the occurrence of landslides, rather than on hazard mapping in a spatiotemporal context as defined by Varnes (1984). In most shallow soils on hillslopes, slope failure during or after rainstorms is triggered by an increase in pore pressure and a corresponding reduction in effective stress in the soil.…”

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Multiple Regression and GIS Tools in Tajan Basin, North of Iran

“…From multivariate analysis, better hypothetical correlation between instability factors and landslide occurrence is perceived and it provides more reliable response (Carrara, 1983;Carrara et al, 1991Carrara et al, , 1992Mark & Ellen, 1995;Clerici et al, 2002;Ayalew & Yamagishi, 2004). Multivariate regression analysis plays a central role in statistics that cause one of the most powerful and commonly used techniques.…”

Dynamic Process Analysis and Hazard Prediction of Debris Flow in Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Area—A Case Study at Ridi Gully

“…Although hazard assessment of debris flows is a challenge for disaster reduction in mountain regions worldwide (Okunishi and Suwa, 2001), scholars have recently made outstanding progress in regional studies and in on-site or local-scale studies (Jakob et al, 2005;Hürlimann et al, 2006;Fuchs et al, 2008;Calvo and Savi, 2009;Marzocchi, 2012;Zou et al, 2016). Generally, the regional assessment is based mainly on empirical and semi-quantitative analysis methods, such as GIS (Geographic Information System) spatial analysis (Huggel et al, 2003), statistical analysis (Mark and Ellen, 1995;Rickenmann, 1999), simple dynamic approaches (Archetti and Lamberti, 2003;Grêt-Regamey and Straub, 2006;Hübl et al, 2009), and interpretation of aerial photographs or satellite images (Bisson et al, 2005;Pradhan, 2010). In reference to risk assessment of individual debris-flow hazards and events that are focused on a local scale, scholars have explored various methods and models.…”