Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves

Furrer, Eva; Katz, Richard W.; Walter, Marcus D.; Furrer, Reinhard

doi:10.3354/cr00924

Cited by 67 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Challenges in extreme value methods include specifying the dependence on LSMPs of the parameters of the extremal distributions in a manner consistent with our dynamical understanding. Moreover, heat waves and CAOs are relatively complex forms of extreme events, some of whose characteristics can be challenging to incorporate into the framework of extreme value statistics (Furrer et al 2010). Finally, another advantage of the POT approach over the block maxima approach is being able to incorporate daily indices of LSMPs as covariates (not just monthly or seasonally aggregated indices).…”

Section: Application Of Extreme Value Statistical Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

et al. 2015

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of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.Abstract The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies

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Section: Application Of Extreme Value Statistical Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cooling occurs in the upper tail of both daily maximum (panel a) and minimum (panel c) temperature in the southeastern US. Although these results are not explicitly in terms of heat waves or cold air outbreaks, they do reflect changes in extremes that are often part of such multi-day events (Furrer et al 2010).…”

Section: Observed Trends and Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

et al. 2015

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“…A third approach that is now gaining popularity, initially developed from hydrological modeling for flood forecasting by Davison & Smith (1990), is to model the occurrence of the excesses and their magnitude jointly as a point process. Here we extend the statistical model further by incorporating atmospheric variables, and adding a geometric distribution to examine hot spell duration (Furrer et al 2010). …”

Section: Statistical Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Methods to identify independent sequences of POT temperature extremes range from simple approximations taking the maximum value of a sequence with a minimum interval between clustered extreme temperatures, to the use of complex models conditioned on the first excess in a sequence (Furrer et al 2010). We adopted a minimum number of days with maximum temperature falling below u that was at least equal to the mean duration of the cluster of extremes (Ferro & Segers 2003) to define independent sequences of extremes.…”

Section: Extended Point Process Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furrer et al (2010) We were concerned with 3 large-scale circulation patterns that are known to influence European or global temperatures ): (1) ENSO; (2) the NAO, whose strong influence on the European winter climate is well known (Hurrell et al 2003, Cassou et al 2004) although its role in summer climate variability is not entirely understood (Jacobeit et al 2009); and (3) atmospheric blocking. This article presents the development of a stationary model, premised on POT temperature maxima, to investigate the frequency, magnitude and duration of hot spells.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling European hot spells using extreme value analysis

Photiadou¹,

Jones²,

Keellings³

et al. 2014

Clim. Res.

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Atmospheric blocking in mainland Europe is often cited as the cause of extremely high temperatures lasting several days. By definition, extreme temperatures are rare, and yet the theory of extreme value statistics has seldom been applied to quantify the influence of atmospheric blocking on hot spells. Similarly, a comparison of the relative influence of other well-known atmospheric drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), has seldom been explored. We applied a novel combination of extreme value and geometric distributions to observed daily temperature maxima from 74 stations across Europe, covering 1951−2010, to establish a stationary model of the expected magnitude, frequency and duration of hot spells that did not explicitly account for atmospheric drivers. Monthly time series of NAO, ENSO and 4 coherent atmospheric blocking regions were then incorporated as nonstationary covariates in the distribution parameter estimates to assess the dependence of hot spells on atmospheric covariates. We concluded that ENSO does not have a significant influence on hot spell magnitude or frequency; the NAO is a significant driver of hot spell magnitude (maximum attained temperature), frequency (annual event count) and duration (length of event) in northern Europe and Atlantic bordering stations; and atmospheric blocking is a significant driver of all aspects of hot spells in all parts of Europe. While NAO may increase peak temperatures by 2−4°C only in the north, relatively strong atmospheric blocking could result in increased temperatures of at least 4°C higher across Europe, with a commensurate increase in hot spell duration of 2−4 d. KEY WORDS: Extreme value theory · Atmospheric blocking · NAO · North Atlantic Oscillation · ENSO · EuropeResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

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Trends in summer extreme temperatures over the Iberian Peninsula using nonurban station data

et al. 2014

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[1] Heat wave event trends over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) are studied using extreme value theory, specifically the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach. Summer (June-August) daily temperature records from 20 observatories regularly distributed over Iberia in places far from urban effects were available for the common period 1961-2010. Heat waves are defined as days occurring above the 95th percentile of the temperature distribution, considering both maximum (T max ) and minimum (T min ) temperatures. These events were identified using a "run declustering" scheme to select independent extreme events exceeding the threshold. Also, the dates of occurrence of the independent events were fitted to a Poisson process. Trends in the following parameters were studied: the scale parameter of the POT approach, the Poisson intensity, mean, return level period, and low (25th percentile) and high (75th percentile) values. The optimal trends in the Poisson intensity considering both T max and T min show a major increase in the occurrence of heat waves. Also, the rise in the return level trend was less than that in the mean of T min and T max , and the analysis of the values of T min and T max showed a greater increasing trend in the low values (25th percentile) than in the high values (75th percentile), especially for T max , leading to a decrease in the variance. Over the IP, temperature extremes are increasing but not as much as the mean because the variance is tending to decrease. This highlights the important role of variance in the evolution of extremes.

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Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves

Cited by 67 publications

References 27 publications

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

Modeling European hot spells using extreme value analysis

Trends in summer extreme temperatures over the Iberian Peninsula using nonurban station data

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