Statistical modeling of tornado intensity distributions

Dotzek, Nikolai; Grieser, Jürgen; Brooks, Harold E.

doi:10.1016/s0169-8095(03)00050-4

Cited by 76 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Brooks and Doswell (2001b) noted that the distribution of tornadoes by intensity appeared similar in many countries, implying that there might be an underlying physical process (or set of processes) that leads to the intensity of a tornado. Since that time, Dotzek et al (2003Dotzek et al ( , 2005 and Feuerstein et al (2005) have worked to put that speculation on a firmer statistical footing. Dotzek et al (2003) and Feuerstein et al (2005) showed that Weibull distributions could be fit to the data from a variety of countries worldwide and applied a two-parameter leastsquare fit to observed worldwide tornado intensity distributions both in F-scale and wind speed v. With x denoting either of these, the Weibull distribution is given in three-parameter form for probability density p(x):…”

Section: Underlying Problems and Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The spatial distribution of severe convective storms and an analysis of their secular changes

Brooks¹,

Dotzek²

2008

Climate Extremes and Society

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Severe convective storms are responsible for billions of US dollars in damage each year around the world. They form an important part of the climate system by redistributing heat, moisture, and trace gases, as well as producing large quantities of precipitation. Reporting of severe convection varies from country to country, however, so that determining their distribution from the reports alone is difficult, at best. Evidence does exist that the intensity of some events, particularly tornadoes, follows similar distributions in different locations, making it possible to build statistical models of occurrence. Remotely-sensed observations provide some insight, but the relationship between the observable parameters and the actual events of interest limits the quality of the estimate. Another approach is to use observations of the larger-scale environments. As stated, the relationship between the observation and the event limits the estimate, but global coverage is possible. Time series of the favorable environments can also be developed from such data. In order to improve the estimates, the most pressing need is better observational data of events. Very few countries have formal systems for collection of severe thunderstorm reports. A new effort from a consortium of researchers in Europe to develop a continental-wide database offers the possibility of a significant improvement in data in that part of the world.

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Section: Underlying Problems and Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The spatial distribution of severe convective storms and an analysis of their secular changes

Brooks¹,

Dotzek²

2008

Climate Extremes and Society

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“…Note that in the present paper, waterspout tornadoes (either landfalling or not) are not included in the analysis. Several studies have already been based on this data source (e. g. Dotzek, 2001;Dotzek et al, 2003;Feuerstein et al, 2005). Such tornado reports are either based on actual observations of the events occurring, or on a posteriori damage surveys which allow classifying the damage as tornadic.…”

Section: Tornado Reportsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tornadoes in Germany 1950–2003 and their relation to particular weather conditions

Bissolli

Grieser

Dotzek³

et al. 2007

Global and Planetary Change

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The objective of this statistical-climatological study is to identify characteristic weather situations in which tornadoes in Germany preferably occur. Tornado reports have been taken from the TorDACH database for the period 1950-2003. Weather situations are defined by the objective weather types classification of the German Meteorological Service (DWD), described by the direction of air mass advection, the cyclonality and the humidity (precipitable water) of the troposphere. In addition the number of thunderstorm days and aerological parameters, derived from temperature and dewpoint in 850 and 500 hPa, are taken into account.Higher frequencies of tornadoes in Germany are found in recent years 1998-2003, particularly in the years 2003 (40 tornadoes) and 2000 (warmest year in Germany since the beginning of the 20th century). There is no shift of the seasonal cycle detectable for the period 1980-2003 compared to 1950-2003 and also no shift of the intensity distribution. The majority of the tornadoes can be attributed to 3 specific weather types, all with a south-westerly advection and high humidity. This can be found for weak as well as for strong tornadoes. Anti/cyclonality in 950 hPa reduces/enhances the tornado frequency roughly by a factor of 2, while in 500 hPa cyclonality shows no significant influence.The fraction of the number of registered tornado days to the number of thunderstorm days has a maximum of one tornado in 50 thunderstorm days in the north-western part of Germany. Specific ranges of temperature and dewpoint in 850/500 hPa, which are not the highest values, are favoured for the occurrence of tornadoes.

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“…Some of these changes were intentional, while others were not. The implications for continued applicability of comparisons of ratings across time and space that we have been involved in the past are troubling (e.g., Brooks and Doswell, 2001;Dotzek et al, 2003Dotzek et al, , 2005Feuerstein et al, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%