Statistical multi-criteria evaluation of non-nuclear asteroid deflection methods

Abstract

This version is available at https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/61691/ Strathprints is designed to allow users to access the research output of the University of Strathclyde. Unless otherwise explicitly stated on the manuscript, Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Please check the manuscript for details of any other licences that may have been applied. You may not engage in further distribution of the material for any profitmaking activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute both the url (https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/) and the content of this paper for research or private study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge.Any correspondence concerning this service should be sent to the AbstractIn this paper we assess and compare the effectiveness of four classes of nonnuclear asteroid deflection methods applied to a wide range of virtual collision scenarios. We consider the kinetic impactor, laser ablation, the ion beaming technique and two variants of the gravity tractor. A simple but realistic model of each deflection method was integrated within a systematic approach to size the spacecraft and predict the achievable deflection for a given mission and a given maximum mass at launch. A sample of 100 synthetic asteroids was then created from the current distribution of NEAs and global optimisation methods were used to identify the optimal solution in each case according to two criteria: the minimum duration between the departure date and the time of virtual impact required to deflect the NEA by more than two Earth radii and the maximum miss-distance achieved within a total duration of 10 years. Our results provide an interesting insight into the range of applicability of individual deflection methods and argue the need to develop multiple methods in parallel for a global mitigation of all possible threats.

Assessment of Near-Earth Asteroid Deflection Techniques via Spherical Fuzzy Sets

“…Hence, from both equations (13) and (14), it holds that the criteria C 7 (level of maturity) and C 4 (asteroid composition) interchange their relative level of importance from the SWAM operator to the TFS version of AHP. Specifically, it holds that C 4 appears as a more important criterion than C 7 when applying SFS TOPSIS.…”

“…Since they are able to closely approach Earth's orbit, small perturbations regarding their orbits may place them on a collision path to the Earth. As such, to perform an exhaustive tracking of these asteroids is recommended [14,15].…”

Evaluation of NEA deflection techniques. A fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis for planetary defense

“…For further technical details regarding each NEA deflection approach described above, we refer the reader to [8], [29], and [35].…”

The frontier science and key technologies of asteroid monitoring and early warning, security defense and resource utilization

“…根据预警时间长短以及目标小行星尺寸的不同, 主动防御技术可分为3大类 [26,27] : (1) 针对短预警时间、 大尺寸PHA, 利用核爆炸摧毁或者改变其轨道; 能够通过长期作用改变PHA的技术手段包括: 质 量驱动、拖船、太阳光压、引力牵引、激光驱动、离 子束等 [17,28] . 这些手段一般适用于防御预警几年甚至 几十年的小行星.…”