Stochastic Dynamics and Deterministic Skeletons: Population Behavior of Dungeness Crab

Higgins, Kevin; Hastings, Alan; Sarvela, Jacob Neal; Botsford, Louis W.

doi:10.1126/science.276.5317.1431

Cited by 200 publications

(172 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…We simulate the dynamics of metapopulation extinction using a biologically realistic model that includes stochastic demographic (17,23), environmental (17,23), and genetic (24) mechanisms. Our individual-based model (25) includes population dynamics within each patch, explicit spatial structure, and an explicit representation of each diploid genome (10,11,17,23,24).…”

Section: Genetic and Demographic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Metapopulation extinction caused by mutation accumulation

Higgins

Lynch

2001

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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152

156

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Theory suggests that the risk of extinction by mutation accumulation can be comparable to that by environmental stochasticity for an isolated population smaller than a few thousand individuals. Here we show that metapopulation structure, habitat loss or fragmentation, and environmental stochasticity can be expected to greatly accelerate the accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations, lowering the genetic effective size to such a degree that even large metapopulations may be at risk of extinction. Because of mutation accumulation, viable metapopulations may need to be far larger and better connected than would be required under just stochastic demography. K imura, Maruyama, and Crow (1) first noted that mildly deleterious mutations may create a considerably larger mutational load in small populations than more deleterious mutations. Deleterious mutations impose a load on populations through a reduction in the mean survivorship and͞or reproductive rates of individuals (2-5). In very large, effectively infinite populations, an equilibrium mutation load exists that is independent of the mutational effect (2, 3, 5, 6). However, in sufficiently small isolated populations, mildly deleterious mutations may be a potent extinction force, because individually they are nearly invisible to natural selection, although causing an appreciable cumulative reduction in population viability (1,5,(7)(8)(9)(10)(11). Theory suggests that the accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations can be comparable to environmental stochasticity in causing extinction of populations smaller than a few thousand individuals (8,12,13).All previous theoretical work on extinction caused by mutation accumulation has focused on a single panmictic population, but most populations have some degree of subdivision, which may greatly magnify the stochastic development of mutation load (14,15). Moreover, most theoretical work on extinction has focused on only one or two extinction mechanisms at a time, for reasons of mathematical tractability. But demographic (16, 17), environmental (16, 17), and genetic stochasticity (8, 10, 11) operate simultaneously in natural populations, and their synergy may have a strong impact on the probability of extinction (12,13,(18)(19)(20)(21)(22). Genetic and Demographic ModelWe simulate the dynamics of metapopulation extinction using a biologically realistic model that includes stochastic demographic (17, 23), environmental (17, 23), and genetic (24) mechanisms. Our individual-based model (25) includes population dynamics within each patch, explicit spatial structure, and an explicit representation of each diploid genome (10,11,17,23,24).We parameterize the genetic mechanisms in our model using values from a broad array of empirical studies. Independent data on a diversity of organisms suggest that the genomic deleterious mutation rate, U, is frequently on the order of 0.1 to 1 per individual per generation in multicellular eukaryotes, and that the average homozygous and heterozygous effects of such mutations are typically le...

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Section: Genetic and Demographic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our individual-based model (25) includes population dynamics within each patch, explicit spatial structure, and an explicit representation of each diploid genome (10,11,17,23,24).…”

Section: Genetic and Demographic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Metapopulation extinction caused by mutation accumulation

Higgins

Lynch

2001

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

152

156

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“…Theoretical analysis of age-structured models has shown variability to increase with exploitation rate, reproductive success, and maturation age of the population (Andrews et al 2004). This effect has also been found in empirical studies of North Sea cod (Andrews et al 2004) and marine crabs (Higgins et al 1997).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 52%

“…Similar density-dependent effects have been shown to contribute to fluctuations in "Norwegian" cod (Bjørnstad et al 1999) and marine crab populations (Higgins et al 1997). Moreover, in our scenarios this effect is amplified by high fishing pressure, which immediately removes strong year-classes from the stock when the fish reach the legal size limit.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 59%

Challenges and Opportunities of Local Fisheries Management: Pikeperch, Sander Lucioperca (Actinopterygii: Perciformes: Percidae), in Pärnu Bay, Northern Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea

Müller‐Karulis¹,

Arula²,

Balode³

et al. 2013

Acta Icth et Piscat

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“…Examples are aphids and butterflies [24,33,59], moths [30,36,41], fish [47], crabs [27], birds [13,49], voles and mice [9,28], hares [47], squirrels [47,50], sheep [23], arctic herbivores [45], early blooming forest floor species [44], as well as many others [32,37]. Synchrony is the consequence of two independent factors: the dispersal of populations among patches and the existence of common meteorological driving forces (Moran effect).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synchrony in tritrophic food chain metacommunities

Belykh

Piccardi

Rinaldi

2009

Journal of Biological Dynamics

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The synchronous behaviour of interacting communities is studied in this paper. Each community is described by a tritrophic food chain model, and the communities interact through a network with arbitrary topology, composed of patches and migration corridors. The analysis of the local synchronization properties (via the master stability function approach) shows that, if only one species can migrate, the dispersal of the consumer (i.e., the intermediate trophic level) is the most effective mechanism for promoting synchronization. When analysing the effects of the variations of demographic parameters, it is found that factors that stabilize the single community also tend to favour synchronization. Global synchronization is finally analysed by means of the connection graph method, yielding a lower bound on the value of the dispersion rate that guarantees the synchronization of the metacommunity for a given network topology.

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Stochastic Dynamics and Deterministic Skeletons: Population Behavior of Dungeness Crab

Cited by 200 publications

References 20 publications

Metapopulation extinction caused by mutation accumulation

Metapopulation extinction caused by mutation accumulation

Challenges and Opportunities of Local Fisheries Management: Pikeperch, Sander Lucioperca (Actinopterygii: Perciformes: Percidae), in Pärnu Bay, Northern Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea

Synchrony in tritrophic food chain metacommunities

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