This work aims to forecast (over 1, 5, and 15 years) the extremes, the expected value, and the volatility of natural disasters occurrences. To achieve this objective, we adopt a generalized two‐factor square‐root model linking together occurrences and volatility through stochastic correlation (Brownian motion). We use a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to forecast the maximum number of occurrences as a measure of value at risk (VaR). The results are checked in terms of accuracy, compared versus some baseline models (i.e., the Poisson process and the extreme value model) and backtested.