Stochastic market modeling with Gaussian Quadratures: Do rotations of Stroud's octahedron matter?

Artavia, Marco; Grethe, Harald; Zimmermann, Georg

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.017

Cited by 8 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…In order to separate the stochastic part of the yield time series, we have followed the procedure applied by Artavia et al (2015), who calculate them as deviates from estimated time trends. For example, if yi,j is the observed yield of crop i in year j and ŷ i,j is the estimated trend value of the same crop in the same year, then the observed deviate is captured as zi,j = yi,j /ŷ i,j -1.…”

Section: The Stochastic Componentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature

Siddig

Stepanyan

Wiebelt

et al. 2020

Ecological Economics

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Several environmental changes have occurred in the Sudan in the past; several are ongoing; and others are projected to happen in the future. The Sudan has witnessed increases in temperature, floods, rainfall variability, and concurrent droughts. In a country where agriculture, which is mainly rainfed, is a major contributor to gross domestic product, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods, these changes are especially important, requiring measurement and analysis of their impact. This study not only analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change, but also consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions which may mitigate the effects.We feed climate forcing, water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modelling suite that includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth, all connected to the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The outcomes of this part of the modeling suite are annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects of such changes on production, consumption, macroeconomic indicators, and income distribution are assessed using a single country dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic projections of crop yields until 2050.The results of the model simulations reveal that, while the projected mean climate changes bring some good news for the Sudan, extreme negative variability costs the Sudan cumulatively between 2018 and 2050 US$ 109.5 billion in total absorption and US$ 105.5 billion in GDP relative to a historical mean climate scenario without climate change.

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Section: The Stochastic Componentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature

Siddig

Stepanyan

Wiebelt

et al. 2020

Ecological Economics

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“…Such a shift impacts the whole system of specifications for demand, trade and stocks, and a new equilibrium with price clearing is found. This method is the standard way of dealing with exogenous shocks in economic models and is described in detail in Artavia et al (). For the approximation, regional blocks are created, representing the Black Sea region (Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan), the EU (EU‐15 and EU‐N13), North America (Canada, Mexico and the US), South America (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), South East Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam), Australia, China and India.…”

Section: Methodological Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Araujo-Enciso¹,

Fellmann²

2019

J Agricultural Economics

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Exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) help to improve global wheat availability and, hence, global food security. During the past 15 years, however, RUK wheat exports have shown high variability, mainly because they have been repeatedly diminished by severe harvest failures. We present an outlook for RUK wheat production and exports up to 2027, taking into account possible yield variability and harvest failures, and focusing on the impact on food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the world's major wheat importing region. For the analysis we use the stochastic version of the Aglink-Cosimo model. Simulation results show that wheat yields in RUK are a major source of uncertainty for international wheat markets. The projected substantial increases in world market prices due to limited RUK wheat exports threaten food security in MENA and highlight the need for both stabilising RUK yields and novel complementary food security approaches to decrease MENA's vulnerability to disruptions in agricultural world markets.

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“…ESIM is modeling technological progress in agriculture, agricultural policy and trade EU policy. ESIM has been used in the analysis of the effects of yield instability on agricultural prices [10], [11], [12], in the analysis of climate change scenarios [13]. Furthermore, ESIM has been used for modeling functioning of factor markets for agriculture [14], [15].…”

Section: Overview Of the Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agro-economic models: a review and directions for research

Nehrey

Kaminskyi

Komar

2019

PEN

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The article is devoted to reviewing of main 8 models, which are used to analyze the agriculture sector, medium, and long-term forecasts, as well as policy making. The review is based on comparative analysis of models conducted by the authors according to a number of criteria. On its basis, formed the distinctive features of modeling, which are realized in these models. The first distinctive feature is the problem of choosing the level of aggregation in models. This feature generates the direction of research about the effectiveness of the application of one or another aggregation level in modeling. The second distinctive feature of modeling is structurization models into two types: partial equilibrium and computable general equilibrium models. The method of choosing the type of model is one of the actual problems. The third distinctive feature is dominance of deterministic approaches in the construction of models. The use of stochastic analysis in models, in the opinion of the authors, does not yet have a system analysis. Based on the carried out analysis, the authors tried to form directions for the development of the agriculture sector modeling.

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Stochastic market modeling with Gaussian Quadratures: Do rotations of Stroud's octahedron matter?

Cited by 8 publications

References 10 publications

Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature

Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature

Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Agro-economic models: a review and directions for research

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