Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making

Cook, Carly N.; Inayatullah, Sohail; Burgman, Mark A.; Sutherland, William J.; Wintle, Brendan A.

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2014.07.005

Cited by 146 publications

(167 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Although it is encouraging that we could detect EWIs in some of our empirical aquatic time series using data derived from commonly used monitoring schemes that were not designed for this purpose, the lack of reliability and agreement among signals limits the potential application of EWIs only to well-understood ecosystems (35). In such well-understood ecosystems, harnessing EWIs as metrics of loss of resilience may aid planning for the unpredictable and could be part of strategic foresight programs for management and conservation (44); however, our analysis suggests that these metrics can be of added value only in combination with existing frameworks (e.g., alternative stable-state theory) and in-depth ecosystem knowledge. Furthermore, taking into account the underlying assumptions and requirements of EWI analysis can inform managers about adaptations in monitoring schemes by advising about relevant variables and temporal sampling resolution to adequately capture changes in the resilience of systems.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems

Gsell

Scharfenberger

Özkundakci

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

124

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Ecosystems can show sudden and persistent changes in state despite only incremental changes in drivers. Such critical transitions are difficult to predict, because the state of the system often shows little change before the transition. Early-warning indicators (EWIs) are hypothesized to signal the loss of system resilience and have been shown to precede critical transitions in theoretical models, paleo-climate time series, and in laboratory as well as whole lake experiments. The generalizability of EWIs for detecting critical transitions in empirical time series of natural aquatic ecosystems remains largely untested, however. Here we assessed four commonly used EWIs on long-term datasets of five freshwater ecosystems that have experienced sudden, persistent transitions and for which the relevant ecological mechanisms and drivers are well understood. These case studies were categorized by three mechanisms that can generate critical transitions between alternative states: competition, trophic cascade, and intraguild predation. Although EWIs could be detected in most of the case studies, agreement among the four indicators was low. In some cases, EWIs were detected considerably ahead of the transition. Nonetheless, our results show that at present, EWIs do not provide reliable and consistent signals of impending critical transitions despite using some of the best routinely monitored freshwater ecosystems. Our analysis strongly suggests that a priori knowledge of the underlying mechanisms driving ecosystem transitions is necessary to identify relevant state variables for successfully monitoring EWIs.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems

Gsell

Scharfenberger

Özkundakci

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

124

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“…The list is clearly dominated by leading news websites and news agencies such as The New York Times (1), Reuters (3), Forbes (4), Mashable (5) and Washington Post (6). Other user profiles in the list belong to the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi (2), the President of the United States Barack Obama (9), the United Nations (7), United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (8), and the World Economic Forum (10). The list also shows that three of these user profiles are located in the United States, while four of them represent international organizations or media companies with headquarters in the USA.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Likewise, the author sees great potential of Twitter as an additional instrument in different phases of strategic Foresight exercises. There are several perspectives in the literature of how many phases of Foresight should be classified and how to differentiate these phases [3,8,22]. The author of this article distinguishes four main phases of a strategic Foresight [16]: (1) Gathering and analysis of information and data, including desk research and horizon scanning, (2) generating knowledge through a participative process, usually in the form of alternative future scenarios, (3) formulating options and handing over of policy recommendations, and (4) implementation, communication and dissemination of results.…”

Section: Twitter and Foresightmentioning

confidence: 99%

Twitter data analysis as contribution to strategic foresight-The case of the EU Research Project “Foresight and Modelling for European Health Policy and Regulations” (FRESHER)

Uhl¹,

Kolleck²,

Schiebel³

2016

Eur J Futures Res

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In this article the value of Twitter data analysis for a strategic foresight exercise is discussed. The article offers an overview of Twitter's basic functionalities, previous Twitter research and related studies on using Twitter in foresight projects to date. Based on this knowledge the case of the EU research project BForesight and Modelling for European Health Policy and RegulationsB(FRESHER) is used to conduct a Twitter data analysis in three steps: an analysis of weblinks to get insights into the content spread via Twitter, a social network analysis to define central actors in a Twitter debate, and a hashtag-analysis to find out which topics are discussed a n d t o su p po r t t h e i de n t i f i c at i o n o f d r i v e r s o f noncommunicable diseases. The article shows the benefit a Twitter data analysis provides for the FRESHER project and reveals implications for future research in this field.

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“…Pour s'approprier le travail d'Agrimonde-Terra et construire des scénarios « Usages des terres et sécurité alimentaire » adaptés à la situation nationale, le groupe doit être divers (différentes disciplines, origines professionnelles, secteurs) et créatif (Cook et al, 2014). C'était le cas en Tunisie.…”

Section: Les Tendances Favorables Au Développement De Ce Scénariounclassified

Vers un scénario « Des usages agro-écologiques des terres pour une alimentation diversifiée et de qualité et un système alimentaire territorialisé » en Tunisie en 2050

Lattre-Gasquet¹,

Moreau²,

Elloumi

et al. 2017

OCL

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Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making

Cited by 146 publications

References 45 publications

Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems

Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems

Twitter data analysis as contribution to strategic foresight-The case of the EU Research Project “Foresight and Modelling for European Health Policy and Regulations” (FRESHER)

Vers un scénario « Des usages agro-écologiques des terres pour une alimentation diversifiée et de qualité et un système alimentaire territorialisé » en Tunisie en 2050

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