Strategic Investigations of Water Conflicts in the Middle East

Systems methodologies to model third-party intervention in international conflicts are developed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR). An inverse GMCR is introduced to utilize the GMCR as a negotiation tool by altering the procedure of the original framework. The methodologies presented give a better understanding of how decision makers (DMs) can be motivated to undertake certain actions within the conflict. Moreover, the inverse GMCR tackles the problem of specifying which preferences for DMs lead to a particular resolution, thereby making it easier for a mediator or other third party to influence the course of the conflict. The methodologies are applied to a real-world dispute, a complex water conflict in the Middle East.

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“…This conflict was thoroughly analyzed using GMCR along with two other connected water conflicts [14].…”

Section: Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The case studies emphasize the effects of third-party intervention in bringing about a more desired resolution [14]. Standard GMCR was used to model and analyze the conflicts before and after third-party intervention, confirming how and why the outcomes were significantly different.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inverse Approach to the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

Kinsara

Kilgour

Hipel

2015

IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern, Syst.

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“…The graph theoretic model of conflict resolution enhanced the earlier work of conflict theory by providing rigorous computational support for facilitation activities (Fang et al 1993). This line of research is still vivid and ongoing, with a continued contribution of University of Waterloo scholars to the field (Hipel et al 2014).…”

Section: Origins Of the Game Structuring Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review and participatory extension of game structuring methods

Cunningham

Hermans

Slinger

2014

EURO Journal on Decision Processes

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Problem structuring methods are uniquely suitable for analysing strategically complex problems. There exists a subset of these problem structuring methods which focus specifically on structuring the decision processes by which multiple actors debate and potentially resolve complex problems. These methods include, but are not limited to, analysis of options, conflict analysis, exchange modelling, hypergame analysis and the theory of moves. In this paper, we characterize these methods as ''game structuring methods'', by describing their common analytical elements and discussing their theoretical pre-commitments. We further develop a standardized approach for using such a game structuring methods within a participatory modelling setting.

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“…[20][21][22] Hipel et al used GMCR models to develop a stable scenario for resolving water conflicts among Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. 23 Kinsara et al developed a GMCR model for the representation and resolution of real-world conflicts. 24 Their model was capable of both creating stable conditions and striking a balance in water uses by describing and properly representing the behavior of the players involved in the conflict.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resolving water allocation conflicts using WEAP simulation model and non-cooperative game theory

2019

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Disparity in water supply and demand often leads to conflicts among users over water resources in basins. Game theory is a new tool recently employed for resolving such conflicts. The present study uses non-cooperative games to resolve the conflicts in the Zayandehroud basin. The games are simulated between two stakeholders by the graph model conflict resolution (GMCR) method as one of the non-cooperative methods. The stakeholders are Isfahan Regional Water Company (IRWC) and Agriculture-Jahad Organization (AJO). Stakeholders can execute some strategies competitively, which include A: developing farming lands, B: improving irrigation efficiency, C: controlling withdrawals from aquifers, and D: selling water to the industrial sector. A and B are executed by AJO and C and D are executed by IRWC. The sustainable water allocation scenarios are obtained by GMCR and employed in a water evaluation and planning simulation model to supply consumers’ water demand. The best sustainable scenario selected based on GMCR concepts requires irrigation efficiency of agricultural lands to be improved in order to achieve a demand meeting index of 90% and, in contrast, there will be not control on water withdrawal from aquifers.

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Strategic Investigations of Water Conflicts in the Middle East

Cited by 38 publications

References 17 publications

Inverse Approach to the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

Inverse Approach to the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

A review and participatory extension of game structuring methods

Resolving water allocation conflicts using WEAP simulation model and non-cooperative game theory

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