Strategic risk analysis – a field version

Abstract

Most people agree that preparing for the future is necessary to excel, but doing it effectively is difficult. All risk analyses offer some foresight, but tools based on classic probabilistic calculus open for deception through apparent accuracy in some situations because ambiguity and fuzziness is largely ignored. We believe this is particularly a problem in strategic settings as it may lead to less informed decision making. We also believe that strategic risk analysis can hardly be performed well without matching risk management actions to the organization’s characteristics. We therefore present a new approach towards strategic risk analysis that remedies the two aforementioned problems. The purpose is to analyze strategic risks in a meaningful and practical way, yet capable of handling the broader scope of strategic risk. The approach is illustrated by a case.

Competences versus risk reduction in higher education

“…First, it is the probability of the unexpected or not desired outcome, which makes this notion uncertain. Uncertainty is a situation, in which we are not certain as to the outcome of our decisions, but are aware of the possibilities (Emblemsvag and Kjolstad 2002;Szabó and Farkas 2000). In other words, the possibility that our decisions will result in an unexpected outcome exists and can lead to a loss (Kolos and Berács 2000).…”

Un procedimiento para evaluar el riesgo de la innovación en la gestión del mantenimiento industrial

“…El riesgo es la combinación de la probabilidad de que un escenario no deseado en particular sea realidad, con las consecuencias o impactos negativos que produciría esa falla en el proceso de interés [13]. Es este par de parámetros los que deben ser tratados con el mayor cuidado por el equipo de análisis utilizando una metodología que los conduzca a la cuantificación de ellos, basados en una apreciación cualitativa y que esta pueda ser trasladada a un valor de referencia, el cual más adelante servirá para jerarquizar las acciones mitigantes del riesgo.…”

Augmenting the Risk Management Process

“…If an analysis shall provide recommendations for actions, it is clear that the capabilities, which can be managed, are needed in the risk analysis as well. In this chapter using risk management in strategy is not discussed, so interested readers on how this can be done are referred to (Emblemsvåg and Kjølstad 2002). 2.…”

“…Here, the usage of the SWOT framework is very useful, see (Emblemsvåg and Kjølstad 2002), substituting risks for threats and opportunities, and organizational capabilities for strengths and weaknesses. Identifying the capabilities is to determine what risk management strategies can be successfully deployed.…”

“…The largest methodological challenge in this step is to combine the risks and capabilities. In (Emblemsvåg and Kjølstad 2002), the link was made explicit using a matrix, but the problem of that approach is that it requires an almost inhuman ability of thinking of risks independently of capabilities first and then think of it extremely clearly afterward when linking the risks and capabilities. The idea was good, but too difficult to use.…”