Most people agree that preparing for the future is necessary to excel, but doing it effectively is difficult. All risk analyses offer some foresight, but tools based on classic probabilistic calculus open for deception through apparent accuracy in some situations because ambiguity and fuzziness is largely ignored. We believe this is particularly a problem in strategic settings as it may lead to less informed decision making. We also believe that strategic risk analysis can hardly be performed well without matching risk management actions to the organization’s characteristics. We therefore present a new approach towards strategic risk analysis that remedies the two aforementioned problems. The purpose is to analyze strategic risks in a meaningful and practical way, yet capable of handling the broader scope of strategic risk. The approach is illustrated by a case.

Purpose -The article sets out to discuss and present a solution to the fact that various qualitative risk analyses of the same problem can reach significantly different conclusions. Design/methodology/approach -By reviewing a common risk analysis approach and identifying where the possible problems arise, the authors propose ways to overcome the problems based on what they have found in the literature in general. Findings -There are ways to greatly reduce the problems, but this requires a risk analysis approach in which information quality and consistency are the subject of greater focus.Research limitations/implications -The definitions used, Monte Carlo methods and the analytical hierarchy process are well tested in countless applications. Hence, the authors believe that this work possesses no major limitations. Practical implications -The approach has only been applied to theoretical situations; real-life situations are needed to address possible practical limitations. Originality/value -The paper illustrates the importance of distinguishing between "uncertainty", "risk" and "capabilities" and the associated implications. It also shows how this can be done in a logically consistent way using the analytical hierarchy process so that the problem of inconsistency is reduced, and how the analysis can be used to systematically improve itself. The proposed risk analysis is a novel approach that has, to the authors' knowledge, never been thought of before.