Strategic Scenarios for Sustainable Industrial Development of Ukraine in the Post-War Period

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to develop the most probable scenarios and to determine the strategic directions and effective tools for the Ukrainian industrial recovery, which will ensure the resistance of the economy in the conditions of military challenges. The method of strategic scenarios allows to find out how the industrial development in Ukraine will develop in the course of war and post-war recovery. Methodology. The methods of system analysis and logical modeling were used to describe the transition of the Ukrainian production from the current situation of military crisis to the target one; structural analysis was used to determine the system of indicators characterizing the resistance of the industry. For this purpose, national (State Statistics of Ukraine) and international (World Bank, Eurostat official website) databases characterizing the level and structure of industrial development in the last 5 years were used. The method of calculation takes into account the criteria of changes in indicators: direction (growth/decline occurred); rate of changes based on the cumulative annual growth rate for the period of 5 years. The study was carried out using analytical methods of the influence of trends in the formation of strategic scenarios in unpredictable situations (conditions of wartime uncertainty), to assess changes in the probability of occurrence due to the actual occurrence of one of them, which made it possible to identify trends, justify scenarios and take them into account when analyzing the prospects for industrial development to strengthen the defense capabilities and economic growth of Ukraine. The results of the survey showed that the strategic scenarios for the industrial development of Ukraine will be adjusted as necessary for the post-war industrial recovery in case of a long-term external military threat to preserve the state sovereignty. The achievement of the set strategic goals depends on the driving forces determining the industrial development in Ukraine. As the main indicators characterizing the tendencies of industrial development in Ukraine, the indicators reflecting the efficiency of the use of productive forces have been chosen: indicators of industrial production efficiency; labor productivity; indicators characterizing innovative development; performance indicators of foreign economic activity and investment development. Taking into account the influence of each of the driving forces of industrial development in the conditions of wartime uncertainty, three scenarios of industrial development were developed: a conditionally positive scenario, in which the economic system will gradually stabilize due to the cessation of hostilities and the recovery of production capacities; a conditionally negative scenario, which will be characterized by the disintegration of the economic system, the destruction of energy infrastructure facilities, where negative trends will dominate; a conditionally neutral (basic) scenario, in which the disintegration of the economic system will not reach extreme levels, and industrial production will develop in areas not covered by hostilities. Practical implications. The key problem of restoring economic stability in Ukraine is to create conditions for favorable development of industrial business, which depends on balanced strategic policy decisions. The transformation of industry into an effective force for the revival of the Ukrainian economy in the conditions of the war and post-war period requires a balanced strategic management of the future development, because it is crucial to meet the unprecedented demands of the war on the available resources of the country and to prevent a social, humanitarian, economic, financial, environmental, military crisis. At the same time, traditional methods of indicative planning cannot take into account all factors of wartime uncertainty, therefore, the rationale of future development vectors based on scenario planning makes it possible to create conditions for minimizing threats and realizing potential opportunities. Value/originality. Strategic scenarios provide for better economic recovery planning with long-term national priorities, development strategies of related industries and sectors for ensuring the Ukrainian manufacturing resistance.