2023
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2023-98
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Strategies for Comparison of Modern Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Models and Insights from the Germany and France Border Region

Graeme Weatherill,
Fabrice Cotton,
Guillaume Daniel
et al.

Abstract: Abstract. The latest generation of national and regional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in Europe presents stakeholders with multiple representations of the hazard in many regions. This raises the question of why and by how much seismic hazard estimates between two or more models differ, not where models overlap geographically but also where new models update existing ones. As modern PSHA incorporates increasingly complex analysis of epistemic uncertainty, the resulting hazard is represented n… Show more

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“…EHSM20 results show differences from the results of national seismic hazard models, mainly due to variations in datasets and methodologies used (Šket Motnikar et al, 2022;Grünthal et al, 2018;Wiemer et al, 2016;Mosca et al, 2022;Meletti et al, 2021;Halldórsson et al, 2022). These differences should be explored and understood to fully integrate the insights of the regional models into a national hazard (Pavel et al, 2016;Weatherill et al, 2023b;Trevlopoulos et al, 2023) or risk models (Papadopoulos et al, 2023). Note, that albeit of key importance, there is no straightforward way of understanding the importance and the significance of the changes between seismic hazard models.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…EHSM20 results show differences from the results of national seismic hazard models, mainly due to variations in datasets and methodologies used (Šket Motnikar et al, 2022;Grünthal et al, 2018;Wiemer et al, 2016;Mosca et al, 2022;Meletti et al, 2021;Halldórsson et al, 2022). These differences should be explored and understood to fully integrate the insights of the regional models into a national hazard (Pavel et al, 2016;Weatherill et al, 2023b;Trevlopoulos et al, 2023) or risk models (Papadopoulos et al, 2023). Note, that albeit of key importance, there is no straightforward way of understanding the importance and the significance of the changes between seismic hazard models.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%